I actually have it starting in July 2006; however, we might be using somewhat different definitions or sources.
Nevertheless, this week the inversion between 3 month and 10 year rates seems more definite. I do not think that it will be significant unless the inversion becomes more pronounced and lasts for a while.
While my version of the Zweig model has been on a sell signal for several months, I am expecting the next Fed moves to be toward cutting short term rates and maybe even stopping quantitative tightening altogether. In addition, a symbolic agreement with China and possible abandonment of tariffs on Mexican goods would probably change the stock market trend to positive very quickly.
If the Dow retested the December low and my trend indicators reached similar extreme negative values, I would very likely go all in on stocks with my TSP, which is currently parked in G.
Regards,
Tex
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Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
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