[TSP_Strategy] Re: Stocks Are A Buy [1 Attachment]

 

[Attachment(s) from rarch71@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] included below]

I finally got around to back-testing my indicator as Sarah suggested earlier.  I discovered it didn't do much in reality.  For backtest I compared SPY versus same starting TSP value selling in  and out of the C fund when the indicator (% of Stocks above 20 day moving average 35% and turn up for buy; 65% and turn down to sell to cash). I'll attach a chart of the results - but the bottom line is that the TSP balance and SPY started the same and ended essentially the same over five years (not factoring a return for being in G fund or F fund when the signal was a sell - just leaving cash, so maybe a 3% booster over the 5 years. Hardly worth the monitoring and 39 interfund transfers that would have been required versus just staying in C fund.

Looks like I need to divine another exit strategy from this bearish dive. Maybe I will just sell low. I don't need the funds for my lifestyle but do want to leave something for the sons, and don't want to ride it down to what Sarah was projecting.

An interesting sidebite - I went 80% TSP 20% Brokerage IRA (USAA) several years ago for my single partial withdrawal.. It has been sort of self directed, but as of today with no withdrawals from either the ratio stands 75% TSP 25% IRA.

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trading based on % stocks above 20 DMA.png

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Posted by: rarch71@gmail.com

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