Bill,
No, I do not know what the market is going to do short term - too many variables and too much noise. But I think you can increase your odds if you watch the correct indicators. I agree with Sarah that long term the market is going down much further. Currently, I would rather be on the sidelines looking for a rally worth riding than 100% in the market hoping for a rally to get out. I truly hope the market rallies into March and April, but I also worry that it will not based on what bonds are doing.
There is a lot of negative news hitting the markets these days. Service PMI reported contraction today and was significantly below expectations. The market held up well on the news and may rally short-term *expecting* the Fed to stop raising rates and reverse course. When the market rallies on negative economic news you have to ask if it is the makings of a sustainable rally?
I am sorry about my negativity related to Goldman Sachs - I am obviously not a fan. I realize we can always find financial news to support both the bull and bear side of the story. I think news is starting to lean toward the bear side and forecasts are reluctantly coming down. Just don't expect Goldman to publish in the media or tell their smaller clients what they are doing with their own books until after they have their positions built up.
Michael
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Posted by: Michael Bond <michaelhbond@yahoo.com>
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