the chatter i was referring to were all of last weeks "are we there yet" posts.
do you care to expound on your "wait and see mode" comment? what is it that you are wanting to see?
The Fed says that our economy is growing. If so, equity markets should (eventually) reflect that increase, as well. Several prominent analysts (e.g. Goldman Sachs) are also expecting a significant turnaround this year.
If the Fed and these bullish analysts are correct, then the base is in and we move up from here.
There are (of course) other analysts who predict up to a 75% decline from last year's peak. If they are accurate, then we have a significant future decline in the works.
From a technical standpoint, we are in a bear market. Bear markets usually take about 18 months to complete. IMHO, this one started in January. My belief is that we are moving lower (700?) albeit not 75% lower (more like 35-40% from the peak), but not without significant bull phases. I am waiting for a nice bull phase to take hold, in order to consider moving to the sidelines. What we have been seeing since January have been attempts at basing.
The Fed says that our economy is growing. If so, equity markets should (eventually) reflect that increase, as well. Several prominent analysts (e.g. Goldman Sachs) are also expecting a significant turnaround this year.
If the Fed and these bullish analysts are correct, then the base is in and we move up from here.
There are (of course) other analysts who predict up to a 75% decline from last year's peak. If they are accurate, then we have a significant future decline in the works.
From a technical standpoint, we are in a bear market. Bear markets usually take about 18 months to complete. IMHO, this one started in January. My belief is that we are moving lower (700?) albeit not 75% lower (more like 35-40% from the peak), but not without significant bull phases. I am waiting for a nice bull phase to take hold, in order to consider moving to the sidelines. What we have been seeing since January have been attempts at basing.
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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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