Even with my long term bear market view that started in year 2000, I think there is a good chance that this bear market rally will continue until a new high is made based on the EWT which can be subjective in interpolation sometimes.
By reviewing the wave structures of DWCPF, it looks like just completed three waves for this down turn last week. So if the down turn started last year was the start of a new bear market, then we should have some rally up to make the 4th wave up, then it will resume down turn.
However, there is a good possibility that the correction (a major Wave-IV down) could have been over last week if the wave structures since Mar 2009 can be viewed as follows:
Wave-I from 2009 to 2001, Wave-II for 20% correction in 2011, Wave-III from 2011 to the 2015 high, and then the Wave-IV just completed..? as A-B-C pattern. If this wishful thinking becomes a reality, then based on the EWT, we should have a new high for the Wave-V, maybe around SPX 2208? The SPX 2208 is my magic number projected using combination of Fibonacci and EWT based on the aforementioned wave structures (If indeed that's true). Ironically, this number also roughly matches the inflation (2.2% annual for 16 years) adjusted peak price of SPX in year 2000.
We had three days in a raw with more than 1% gain for all major indexes and this is very rare event historically. The most time when this type of event happens, the market will positively biased for a while. So let's hope for the new high...but, the first thing first. Let's hope that SPX can clear 2027 soon. Good luck folks!
On Wed, Feb 17, 2016 at 12:44 PM, caramall22@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Well, it's too late for today anyway ;-) I may punch out tomorrow if it continues to rise. Would like to hear more opinions on this "I think there is upside sentiment in the markets. Nothing right now that could cause a knee jerk reaction other than the volatility in oil. However, I think the markets have factored that in and we could see further upswing."
Back a while I think the plan was to exit on the dead cat bounce...if we're close, not sure it's worth holding out for a few points. I hate the whole "trade at noon and then hope there's not some radical change in the afternoon". Very annoying but that's TSP I guess.
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Posted by: Paul <ur12bfriend@gmail.com>
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