Sarah,
I typically monitor 60-days EMA and 200-days EMA for 'Buy and Sell" indicator. These two trend line crosses seem to be more reliable for me. For the last 15 years, if you used these crosses as buy and sell decision for SPX, you would outperformed the market with a significant margin. What do you think about it?
I agree that using these indicators as buy and sell signals for the indices themselves is worthwhile in trending markets. (That is, buying when the index moves above the indicator and selling when it moves below the indicator). However, in general, by the time of the "death cross" much of the downside has already occurred. For example, consider that the Shanghai index just hit its death cross yesterday, after a downward move of over 44%.
The S fund signaled a death cross in Oct 2014 while the index was rallying.
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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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