Just a note on two of the indicators that I watch. My stock trend indicator, while definitely downward recently, graduated this week to a true bear market indicator. This is based on a historical survey on a simple statistical function of my several-month trend indicator, as compared to the subsequent performance of stocks over the next several months.
In addition, the 3 month treasury bill rate ended the week a 0.0% ! By a brief scan through my data, this last happened 4 years ago in 2011.
The trend indicator is only one of several indicators that I use to assess future stock market behavior over the next several months or longer. In itself, one indicator does not mean anything, except that my stock model is now less bullish than it was.
The short term interest rate number means only that the Fed is maintaining historically low short-term rates.
My model is still bullish for stocks several months out or longer from today. It says nothing much about stocks in the shorter term or on decadal time scales (say 10 years or longer). All we have for the latter are (1) very long historical time series of asset prices and interest rates (dating back to maybe the 1800s) and (2) trends of nonbusiness factors, some of which are coming into sharper focus (like global warming and the greenhouse gas effect). No promises on (2).
Good luck,
Tex
Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
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