Re: [TSPStrategy] S Funds

ok not a whiz at excel already downloaded the raw data from tsp.gov into excel but manipulating and creating graphs that will take some time assuming I can figure out how to do this ..

On Wednesday, November 18, 2020, 06:12:41 PM MST, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I down load daily from TSP center, 

Highlight and copy paste

Originally I got their entire database 999 days at a time, goes back to beginning 

You can also get the data from TSP.gov as excel file.

I graph in excel

2007 as that's what I started on

The data is my first set of columns 

Date, then various funds

That takes care thru column L

Next 5 columns are slope over 20 days for 5 funds, F, C, S, I, G

Then next columns 

I copy fund, insert newest data at the top

So, copy raw data from col over from the left,

Then 20 day mov avg, then 20 day upper and lower bollinger band

That takes 4 columns 

Repeat for other 3 funds I track

Also do 10, 20 and 50 day slopes 

I put graphs to the right, 6 weeks at the top for granular view with a dynamic trend line of the 20 day moving average (it automatically calculates)

Graph slopes, are they positive  or negative 

Next page graph the

Daily vs 5 day vs 20 day vs 50 day

Do a logical If 

Is greater or lessers 

If greater than 1 or lesser than 0

Ie

Is daily > 5 day, yes add 1 no add zero

Is 5 day > 20 day, yes add 1 no then zero

Is 20 day > 50 day yes 1, no zero

This is in 3 columns of 1 or 0

These get summed

Then I do a moving average of the sum

Then, graph the moving average 

50 day is slow moving 

Not a strong indicator tho so far

Need to fiddle with it

On Nov 18, 2020, at 7:37 PM, Mimi Bruce via groups.io <hilgard50=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



Where are you graphing this ?  

And if you are using something other than TSP Center and perhaps Stock Charts what are using to track the individual TSP Funds? 

C fund S&P yes 

but what about S and I what are you using to view your moving averages .. 

thanks for any input 

On Wednesday, November 18, 2020, 04:46:44 PM MST, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I retired 4 years ago

I track everything daily 

I do moving averages on C, S, I funds

I steer clear of F fund or the L funds,

To me the L funds seem to be diluted C, S, I to lessen ups and downs 

Look at the 10 year graphs of the funds

Yes they fluctuate but overall they do what?

Go up 

You cannot time the TSP funds as you cannot trade them, and most traders lose very large amounts up to everything and more.

I'm happy with the "whiz kids" running TSP and maintenance costs of virtually zero

I use 

moving averages with +/- 2SD billing errors bands, 

Slopes with 10, 20 & 50 day averages 

Up/down what doing

Accumulation/Distribution line

Are people buying or selling overall based on open, high, low, close and volume and sum and mov avg.

And crossovers of daily, 5 day (week), 20 day(month) and 50day moving averages for a "sense" of what's going on

I have literally and figuratively lost well over several multi $millions

Sold AOL, CSCO, MSFT, DELL, by being a "trader" and threw it away by being in need of "action"

Now I let very smart people winnow out winners and losers and own ETF's they manage and a few individual equities

Got in early TSLA and took profits way too soon and would have 20x as many shares if I just held

Worked in biotechnology and have a few winners and a lot of losers

I really like the ARK funds

If you graph their 5 funds, they have very nice positive slopes

BUT, TSP has been best for me, no to little work on my part, just DCA (dollar cost average) every pay check, max it out, did catch-up contribution 

Hope this is what you asked

Apologies for rambling 

On Nov 18, 2020, at 1:06 PM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Winfield100 I agree with you, wish I had been advised to go 100% (C fund when I started) C or S back in the late 80's and to have just left it alone. I really knew nothing about investing in my 20's.  I did miss part of the losses in 08 and this Feb but left too much on table as you said. Still have done ok. Do you see any reason you would cut back on 100% S and how long do you have to go before retirement?

Richard

On Nov 18, 2020, at 11:59 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



Note: It fluctuates, BUT the trendlines are _UP_ for S fund

Me, i'm 100% in S and have been for a very long time, like _years_

I do graph C,S,I,F funds with 20 day moving averages and +/- 2SD Bollinger bands as the raw data tends to stay inside 2 standard deviations and "hug" either the upper or lower bands

I also do a graph "is daily greater than 10 day, 20 day and 50 day moving average as _long term signal_

You _cannot_ "time the market" trying that can and will lose you well over $1,000,000 from personal experience as there are smarter and faster people out there

I look at trends

(outside the S funds, I love renewable energy, biotech and electric vehicles, and "TAAS" transportation as a Service where you hail a smart car to take you places, why own a car when you park it 97% of the day and pay insurance, fees, taxes etc for the fun of it

I follow very smart folks who do the hard work for me though and look at what they do. If you want a suggestion look at the ARK funds, BUT TSP has done us very very well and i'm lazy

Last 2 months with 20 day move avg and trend line upwards

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Since Christmas 2019, "black Swan" in late feb but recovered. the trend line is up

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Since June 2012  trend line up. graph has 20 day mov average plus 2 standard dev bands, removed daily data as graph too noisy otherwise

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ALL this data is free to download and graph in Excel

all it takes is a little time to get set up then spend lunch hour looking at it and absorbing 

<TSP Spillover Updated 11_18_20.pdf>

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