Re: [TSPStrategy] S Funds

I retired 4 years ago

I track everything daily 

I do moving averages on C, S, I funds

I steer clear of F fund or the L funds,

To me the L funds seem to be diluted C, S, I to lessen ups and downs 

Look at the 10 year graphs of the funds

Yes they fluctuate but overall they do what?

Go up 

You cannot time the TSP funds as you cannot trade them, and most traders lose very large amounts up to everything and more.

I'm happy with the "whiz kids" running TSP and maintenance costs of virtually zero

I use 

moving averages with +/- 2SD billing errors bands, 

Slopes with 10, 20 & 50 day averages 

Up/down what doing

Accumulation/Distribution line

Are people buying or selling overall based on open, high, low, close and volume and sum and mov avg.

And crossovers of daily, 5 day (week), 20 day(month) and 50day moving averages for a "sense" of what's going on

I have literally and figuratively lost well over several multi $millions

Sold AOL, CSCO, MSFT, DELL, by being a "trader" and threw it away by being in need of "action"

Now I let very smart people winnow out winners and losers and own ETF's they manage and a few individual equities

Got in early TSLA and took profits way too soon and would have 20x as many shares if I just held

Worked in biotechnology and have a few winners and a lot of losers

I really like the ARK funds

If you graph their 5 funds, they have very nice positive slopes

BUT, TSP has been best for me, no to little work on my part, just DCA (dollar cost average) every pay check, max it out, did catch-up contribution 

Hope this is what you asked

Apologies for rambling 

On Nov 18, 2020, at 1:06 PM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

Winfield100 I agree with you, wish I had been advised to go 100% (C fund when I started) C or S back in the late 80's and to have just left it alone. I really knew nothing about investing in my 20's.  I did miss part of the losses in 08 and this Feb but left too much on table as you said. Still have done ok. Do you see any reason you would cut back on 100% S and how long do you have to go before retirement?

Richard

On Nov 18, 2020, at 11:59 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



Note: It fluctuates, BUT the trendlines are _UP_ for S fund

Me, i'm 100% in S and have been for a very long time, like _years_

I do graph C,S,I,F funds with 20 day moving averages and +/- 2SD Bollinger bands as the raw data tends to stay inside 2 standard deviations and "hug" either the upper or lower bands

I also do a graph "is daily greater than 10 day, 20 day and 50 day moving average as _long term signal_

You _cannot_ "time the market" trying that can and will lose you well over $1,000,000 from personal experience as there are smarter and faster people out there

I look at trends

(outside the S funds, I love renewable energy, biotech and electric vehicles, and "TAAS" transportation as a Service where you hail a smart car to take you places, why own a car when you park it 97% of the day and pay insurance, fees, taxes etc for the fun of it

I follow very smart folks who do the hard work for me though and look at what they do. If you want a suggestion look at the ARK funds, BUT TSP has done us very very well and i'm lazy

Last 2 months with 20 day move avg and trend line upwards

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Since Christmas 2019, "black Swan" in late feb but recovered. the trend line is up

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Since June 2012  trend line up. graph has 20 day mov average plus 2 standard dev bands, removed daily data as graph too noisy otherwise

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ALL this data is free to download and graph in Excel

all it takes is a little time to get set up then spend lunch hour looking at it and absorbing 

<TSP Spillover Updated 11_18_20.pdf>

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Ditulis oleh: Andriansyah -