Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

So if you are basically buy and hold for the TSP (nothing wrong with that) if you are long, then why bother to track and plot the MA's or the Bollinger bands? 

Richard

On Nov 24, 2020, at 8:39 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

No, I don't trade, that way is madness and very extreme losses, like 100% at times

It takes years to recover if ever

I have 1/2  my liquid wealth in TSP and 1/2 in market

_plus_ you can only trade _twice_ a month in TSP.

A 3rd time if you go to G fund

This can and will cause you to miss up days and lose big gains for tiny gains

I learned that in 35+ years in the markets.

I tried to be smart

I bought and sold 100% of CSCO, MSFT, AMER (which became AOL), CORL, DELL, IOM, GOOG, bunch of others. (If only I had kept 50%)

Many of those above split, and split. Some close to 300 shares for 1 share.

My MSFT would be worth $30,000+ per share for example, instead I made a tiny profit instead of a few millions by being slow and steady

There are computers with nanosecond responses on very short fiber connections using speed of light delays to trade faster than you could imagine and algorithms by way smarter kids

I use whiz kids that I follow to screen stocks for me. 

(I have found ARK to be an excellent source of info and they have ETF's I own a bunch of)

If you haven't I would suggest following them to gain knowledge 

I _love_ TSP as it has low costs, 

I invested in it for ~10 years prior to retirement and have had very "tasty" returns and piled as much cash into it as allowed, maxing out every year also with maxing out catchup

We are comfortable 

We also paid off mortgages, credit cards, cars, all debt 

I got seriously burnt trying to time markets but closely monitor them

I use 10, 20, 50 day mov averages 

I use a crossover of them

I use Bollinger bands with 20 day averages as raw data and 20 day avg tend to "hug" the +/- 2SD bands and "charge across" to hug other band at times.

(As an aside, I bought Tesla 10 years ago and Enphase and accumulated them slowly using DCA and other renewables as I see electrification of the planet and move away from fossil fuels as inevitable as it is cheaper. I run my entire house, pool heater and car on _free_ sunshine, took 20 years to do but doable) 

both use renewable energy and _free_ sunshine

I see electrical generation becoming like cell phones and internet 

Distributed everywhere, decentralized with storage and large power plants pretty much vanishing with microgrids aggregated as necessary as replacements, others seem to see this also

I'm not sure if this belongs on TSP discussion but I tend to ramble, so hope this not too wordy.

On Nov 24, 2020, at 7:34 AM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Winfield100 do you sell the S when it crosses below the 20 day MA and buy it when crossing above it?

On Nov 24, 2020, at 6:56 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



15 years of 20 day moving average (1 trading month) of 4 funds, S, C, I, F

(this data is _free_ you can do this too)

It turned up about 11 years ago, there was a "black swan" in Feb 2020 that _temporarily_ killed me, but I recovered

, otherwise, i have been 100% in S for a very long time

I also graph this stuff daily, it's my day job now i've been retired 4 years

I monitor slopes, trends, etc to "see" and "get the feel" of what others are thinking

_you_ can too

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On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, 02:55:09 AM EST, Scott N <scottnieto@gmail.com> wrote:

If you leave your money in S and C it will double.

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