Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

@bradley.stubbs

20 days is essentially 1 month after you subtract out the weekends and occasional holidays

Easiest way to get data

1) do you have excel?

Go to tspcenter.com

You can get chunks of data in 999 day increments 

There are about 260 trading days in a year, minus weekends (104) holidays ~12+)

Do a highlight, copy paste

Go all the way back if you wish

Use their format as it is easier

(You have a blank column just ignore it)

DONT mess with that data

First I get slopes

(My top row is row 10 for consistency if I need scratch pad rows 2-8 suffice)

Column A is the date column

After initial data is added, newest date at the top in row 10

First 5 column are a 20 day number of the Slope of the line Ie is Slope up, flat or down

Slopes for G, F, C, S, I

SLOPE(H10:H28,$A10:A28)

This computes the 20 day slope of column H versus the date range of column A

You get 5 columns of slopes, note: G & F are essentially _flat_, _gains_ and _losses_ are not a lot

_This is same order as your raw data_

I don't bother much with G fund as that is essentially "ca$h"

Next I copy column I (F fund) to column R, the first open column

Next column is the 20 day moving average

AVERAGE(R10:R29) 

Next column is the +2 standard deviation bollinger band. (These bands expand and contract as stock or equity becomes more or less volatile)

S10+STDEVPA(I10:I28)

Next column 

S10-STDEVPA(I10:I28)

Repeat these for C, S, I funds

Copy the column for C

Then 20 day avg, +/- 2SD cols 

Copy the column for S

Repeat

Copy the column for I

Repeat

Graph your favorites 

I like about a 2 month of slopes and funds and adjust them daily

This is why I like row 10 as my base row

It is easy to adjust graph, highlighting rows in graph and changing start as row 10 and end as row 48 or so

This give me a 6 week graph

I add a liner regression to the graph by highlighting 20 day line and click "trend line linear"

Many of the financial folks use these same timeframes so this gives me a dim view into their collective thoughts about "where are things going"

Obviously I and a lot of folks missed the "black swan" last February March but notice if you did nothing you lost nothing from the graphs

Over in the far far right I have a column with number of shares we own times value of fund

I also have a sheet detailing but/sell flags that is fair and track some individual stocks in other sheets where I calculate A/D accumulation distribution line based on vol, open high low close

Hope this helps

On Nov 29, 2020, at 12:16 AM, Brad Stubbs via groups.io <bradley.stubbs=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Thanks.  Looks I need to start collecting some data.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of winfield100 via groups.io
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 7:18 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

I am still 100% S fund and retired in March 2016

 

I graph the funds daily with 20 day moving averages and +/- 2 standard deviation bands

and a linear regression line

 

I graph the daily, 5 day, 20 day and 50 day moving averages and make an oscillator from summations of ifttt logicals

 

I graph the slopes of the funds and oscillators of same

 

I follow the markets to get overall view

I follow technology trends

 

I do not trade

 

If you do some or all of the above you may get a feel for the markets and the millions of folks who make up the economy 

 

Right now we seem to be going from chaos and randomness to more certainty

 

The markets love certainty it seems

The symbol for the S fund is DWCPF so it is easy to follow

 

We also lived frugally our whole lives and lived long enough to enjoy retirement 

 

Hope this helps a bit

On Nov 28, 2020, at 5:56 PM, Brad Stubbs via groups.io <bradley.stubbs=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Any thoughts on allocations within TSP for those already retired?

I don't need to take withdrawals now but RMD's are < 7 years away.

My thought is to keep at least 30% in equities to provide some growth and offset potential inflation.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of Locutusoftexas
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 5:31 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

To thebigzwatson:

FYI: Here is what happened in 1987. In January, many speculators and inexperienced investors were diving into stocks, which is a contrarian sell signal. i had done better than I thought I would; so being risk averse by nature, I went to money markets. The market then continued upward through August in what many thought was a speculative frenzy. I held money markets the entire time and was miserable about the money that i had left on the table. Then October 19 happened and by December 31 I had done better than anyone who stayed in stocks during the entire year.

This year has been unprecedented (even back to the flu pandemic of 1918). People can congratulate themselves on their courage at staying in the market over the whole year. Nevertheless the stock market is beyond overvalued. No one can be faulted for taking money off the table. Ultimately I believe that the market will crash. No one knows when and I might be wrong.

If you have 20 years before retirement, then you might consider choosing a comfortable asset allocation, e.g., 50% stocks & 50% G (or say 25% G 25% F) and just rebalance periodically to maintain it. Meanwhile, you can get to that allocation from 100% G by moving some fixed percentage of your G fund to a stock fund each month. Another way would be to put say 5% into stocks each time the stock indices go down 5% until you reach your asset allocation goal.

Either way don't get discouraged. Take your time to retirement and consider setting an asset allocation that you can live with and getting there by moving systematically into a stock fund some percentage of the G assets.

The worst thing about moving money out of stocks is deciding when or how to get back in. This is why trading is generally a bad idea.

These are just suggestions. No one knows what is the best course of action for a given person but that person alone

Good luck,
Tex

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