Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

This just proves you can never stop learning. This group has given me the ability to take emotions out of play and go with the numbers! So far I'm up 8% in just nine months. I can assure you I did much worse when using my "guts"...

Aloha! Jan

On Mon, Sep 18, 2017 at 1:54 PM -0700, "robert winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

A very old aphorism of traders and investors, We should be in the investor group is

"Cut your losses, and let your winners run"

From VERY long ago, when Investors Business Daily was started, (Now Investors Daily), one of the pieces of Wisdom was

"Buy high, sell higher"

If you have a loss in an equity, it may have been the correct equity, but your timing is off, cut your losses after 7% and reevaluate IF you let it drop that much.

Why do you want to sell a winner? Do you need the money tomorrow, 10 years from now?

Stocks fluctuate in price, The S Fund (small caps) C Fund, (large caps) I Fund (international stocks from industrialized countries)

If you look at stock prices, and for example, do a 20 day moving average, 

then ~68% of the time the price will fluctuate 1 standard deviation, 

95% of the time, the price will fluctuate 2 standard deviations and 

99,7% of the time, the price will fluctuate 3 standard deviations.

when the price is moving, up or down the standard deviations "expand" in width, when the price is stable, or flat, the standard deviations "bands" are narrow

You can get an "idea" of whats happening by looking at the width of the surrounding 2 standard deviation bands.

right now IF you look at the last 20 days (1 trading month) of the S fund, the 20 day SMA is curving UP, the "bollinger bands", the 2 standard deviation bands +/- are getting "wider" and the S fund has the "look" to me, after being in the markets since the late 1970's/early 1980's of PERHAPS being in an upward trend, maybe.

Thats WHY i'm both 100% S fund and sticking there for a while as at present, my S fund, "is a winner" so WHY should I sell?

since im retired and on a fixed income, i do have time to look at things

below is the data for the S fund, 

20 days of Moving average and +2SD and -2SD.

remember, it's your money and your retirement and potentially _all_ you will have when you retire

44.11	45.42	42.80
44.00	45.27	42.72
43.90	45.09	42.71
43.85	44.97	42.72
43.79	44.82	42.76
43.74	44.67	42.80
43.68	44.56	42.80
43.64	44.51	42.76
43.63	44.52	42.74
43.64	44.56	42.71
43.65	44.60	42.70
43.64	44.53	42.75
43.63	44.51	42.75
43.65	44.62	42.68
43.70	44.73	42.67
43.75	44.84	42.66
43.80	44.95	42.65
43.87	45.09	42.64
43.95	45.25	42.65
44.03	45.35	42.71

From: "poptopwater@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>

To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, September 18, 2017 2:30 PM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

"3) why do you want to sell a winner? seriously WHY? it's loser's you sell. basic investing. it's your money"

Can you define "winner" and "loser" for us?  I think some participants are considering "buy low, sell high" strategy at the moment.

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Posted by: Jan Janigian <zjan2001@yahoo.com>

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