Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S? [1 Attachment]

 

[Attachment(s) from robert winfield included below]

are you also using keltner channel with the BB's?

Keltner channnel is a {(H+L+C)/3} using an EMA or SMA, making a smaller "tube" around the MA so when the BB's contract and "touch" the keltner it gives a better idea of contraction. Keltner seems to not expand/contract very much since they are basically the "Average true range", ie 20 day MA of {(H+L+C)/3}

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From: "romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, September 19, 2017 2:49 AM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S? [1 Attachment]

 

[Attachment(s) from romansmr2@yahoo.com included below]

2nd that statement, although I did stick with my C/S funds during the 2007 drawdown.  Not many can ride out a 25% or 50% hit on their portfolio.  Finding this group should help me find a good exit point when the next 10% + drawdown begins.  

Thank you everyone for their point of views and techniques.

Here is S&P 500 with a Bollinger Band.  Good layman definition on reading it.   

https://www.fidelity.com/viewpoints/active-investor/understanding-bollinger-bands

On Sep 18, 2017, at 2:02 PM, Jan Janigian zjan2001@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

This just proves you can never stop learning. This group has given me the ability to take emotions out of play and go with the numbers! So far I'm up 8% in just nine months. I can assure you I did much worse when using my "guts"...

Aloha! Jan

On Mon, Sep 18, 2017 at 1:54 PM -0700, "robert winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

A very old aphorism of traders and investors, We should be in the investor group is

"Cut your losses, and let your winners run"

From VERY long ago, when Investors Business Daily was started, (Now Investors Daily), one of the pieces of Wisdom was

"Buy high, sell higher"

If you have a loss in an equity, it may have been the correct equity, but your timing is off, cut your losses after 7% and reevaluate IF you let it drop that much.

Why do you want to sell a winner? Do you need the money tomorrow, 10 years from now?

Stocks fluctuate in price, The S Fund (small caps) C Fund, (large caps) I Fund (international stocks from industrialized countries)

If you look at stock prices, and for example, do a 20 day moving average, 

then ~68% of the time the price will fluctuate 1 standard deviation, 

95% of the time, the price will fluctuate 2 standard deviations and 

99,7% of the time, the price will fluctuate 3 standard deviations.

when the price is moving, up or down the standard deviations "expand" in width, when the price is stable, or flat, the standard deviations "bands" are narrow

You can get an "idea" of whats happening by looking at the width of the surrounding 2 standard deviation bands.

right now IF you look at the last 20 days (1 trading month) of the S fund, the 20 day SMA is curving UP, the "bollinger bands", the 2 standard deviation bands +/- are getting "wider" and the S fund has the "look" to me, after being in the markets since the late 1970's/early 1980's of PERHAPS being in an upward trend, maybe.

Thats WHY i'm both 100% S fund and sticking there for a while as at present, my S fund, "is a winner" so WHY should I sell?

since im retired and on a fixed income, i do have time to look at things

below is the data for the S fund, 

20 days of Moving average and +2SD and -2SD.

remember, it's your money and your retirement and potentially _all_ you will have when you retire

44.11	45.42	42.80
44.00	45.27	42.72
43.90	45.09	42.71
43.85	44.97	42.72
43.79	44.82	42.76
43.74	44.67	42.80
43.68	44.56	42.80
43.64	44.51	42.76
43.63	44.52	42.74
43.64	44.56	42.71
43.65	44.60	42.70
43.64	44.53	42.75
43.63	44.51	42.75
43.65	44.62	42.68
43.70	44.73	42.67
43.75	44.84	42.66
43.80	44.95	42.65
43.87	45.09	42.64
43.95	45.25	42.65
44.03	45.35	42.71

From: "poptopwater@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>

To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, September 18, 2017 2:30 PM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

"3) why do you want to sell a winner? seriously WHY? it's loser's you sell. basic investing. it's your money"

Can you define "winner" and "loser" for us?  I think some participants are considering "buy low, sell high" strategy at the moment.

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Attachment(s) from robert winfield | View attachments on the web

1 of 1 Photo(s)

image1.PNG

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Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>

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