Excel spreadsheet.
I get free data daily, make moving averages to smooth the daily fluctuations, 20,50,200 day. Check if they are going up or down, and look at slope of the lines, steeper slope is faster gain (or loss).
You need to study and understand and get an almost instinctive feel, and it's still risky, but at least not completely blind, and remove emotions
What's an excel?
Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhoneOn Saturday, September 16, 2017, 8:58 AM, robert winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
i would respectfully suggest folks make an excel chart using the tspcenter (free data)then add a bunch of columns (you can copy paste)with 20, 50, 200 day Moving averages for each=AVERAGE($I8:$I27) (20 day=AVERAGE($I8:$I207) (200 dayas example for F fund (note $for col I where I keep F datathen a series of 4 more colums forIs todays price > 20 day Move avg, is 20day MA > then 50day and is 50 day >200 dayif so add 1, otherwise blankexample=IF(AND(I8>M8,M8>N8,N8>O8),1,"") <--- in col YI8 is raw data, M8 is 20 day, N8 is 50 day, O8 is 200 dayTHEN sum those 1's (or zeros/blanks) over the last 100 days=SUM(Y8:Y107)in addition, do a slope function of the last 20 days of the raw data (multiply by 1000 to make it readable and set decimal point)=SLOPE(I8:I27,$A8:$A27)*1000(the steeper the slope, the greater the increase [or decrease])Then insert a line graph and choose data over the last 20 days, (i have to recreate the graph every day, but i just select "choose data" and note F fund is not exactly flat, but close.Then also change the data to the last 10 daysNote the C and I funds, over the last 20 days (a trading month) are pretty much in lockstep and the S fund is much steeper (both up and down!!) by a factor of over 2x as much gain!!!The S fund looks a tiny bit worrisome in the last 1-2 days, (rollover?) but still up and still a steeper slope (steep slope = greater gains) but i'm holding firm 100% S fundI would upload the whole sheet IF i knew how and was allowed, BUT this is not investment adviceI panicked on 8/10 and moved 100% to L2050 to 8/30.IF I had believed my eyes, i would have moved 100% back to S on 8/28 and NOT lost 250.4 shares of S fundI'm retired so on fixed income and cannot afford mistakes any more
From: "sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Friday, September 15, 2017 9:06 PM
Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?
I am seriously considering it, but I think that the chart seems to indicate we should move higher short term. Sarah, do you agree with that?
The small cap season could be starting early this year....
IMHO, we have further to go.
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Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>
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