um, no.
the 2SD bands define a range of the price of 95%, so if it heads towards the upper band, or lower band, it tends to stay there
go back and read about the bands and what they point out.
also note it says use more than _1_ indicator. <<-----
note how the stock price "hugs" a band on either the price increase or decrease, and how it "charges across" the moving average
note when the 2 outer bands contract, it _MAY_ signal complacency, or exhaustion or something is going to happen, a breakout either UP or DOWN.
For single equities, i, presently, like the Advance/Decline line (A/D)
The A/D line _overall_ indicates buying/selling pressure in terms of total shares bought at higher prices or total shares sold at lower prices
If you buy a share, or 100,000 shares at a higher price, than that indicates an overall desire (sentiment) "Likes" the equity and it will drift or abruptly head up, who knows
If you sell a share, or 100,000 shares at a lower price, then that indicates an overall desire (sentiment) "dislikes" the equity and it will drift or abruptly head down in price.
as an example, there is a stock (equity) i own, that since 11/30/2016, has traded over 1 Billion shares. There are about 170 million shares total issued by the company, so it has been bought and sold about 6 times in 9.5 months.
So will the price go up or down?
who knows?
BUT the A/D line in that time, measures ALL trades and is positive 155 million shares more that were bought at higher prices than sold at lower prices,
This gives me a vague idea the price will go up, and it did, from $179/share to $387/share in that tme frame, with fluctuations up and down.
both quite high prices, $179, $387,
but an example of "buy high, sell higher" although in my case, i bought at much lower prices, and some in the middle of that range,
SO why should I sell when the price seems to be continuing to rise?
In my case it's more a case of "buy high, and wait to sell, checking to see if it's continuing to rise in value"
Do I care if my profits are 5% or 10% or 15%, perhaps
I do care if I have losses of even small %
but a decrease in the profits, _is still a profit_, just a smaller profit
ie, "cut your losses, and let your winners/profits run"
hope this musing helps
(i lost about 2 years _gross_ salary and 1/2 my retirement learning lessons, a _very_ searing and expensive set of lessons over the last 40+ years, so a reason i advise great caution) patience and time
From: "Daryl Bentley hams29avi@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: "TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, September 19, 2017 7:12 AM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S? [1 Attachment]
[Attachment(s) from Daryl Bentley included below]
So, you buy when the moving average breaks through a high (resistance), when the stock is overvalued, and you sell when the stock breaks through a low (support) level? That just seems so counter-intuitive to me.
On Tuesday, September 19, 2017 2:49 AM, "romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
[Attachment(s) from romansmr2@yahoo.com included below]
![image1.PNG]()
On Sep 18, 2017, at 2:02 PM, Jan Janigian zjan2001@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
2nd that statement, although I did stick with my C/S funds during the 2007 drawdown. Not many can ride out a 25% or 50% hit on their portfolio. Finding this group should help me find a good exit point when the next 10% + drawdown begins.
Thank you everyone for their point of views and techniques.
Here is S&P 500 with a Bollinger Band. Good layman definition on reading it.
On Sep 18, 2017, at 2:02 PM, Jan Janigian zjan2001@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
This just proves you can never stop learning. This group has given me the ability to take emotions out of play and go with the numbers! So far I'm up 8% in just nine months. I can assure you I did much worse when using my "guts"...
Aloha! Jan
On Mon, Sep 18, 2017 at 1:54 PM -0700, "robert winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
A very old aphorism of traders and investors, We should be in the investor group is"Cut your losses, and let your winners run"From VERY long ago, when Investors Business Daily was started, (Now Investors Daily), one of the pieces of Wisdom was"Buy high, sell higher"If you have a loss in an equity, it may have been the correct equity, but your timing is off, cut your losses after 7% and reevaluate IF you let it drop that much.Why do you want to sell a winner? Do you need the money tomorrow, 10 years from now?Stocks fluctuate in price, The S Fund (small caps) C Fund, (large caps) I Fund (international stocks from industrialized countries)If you look at stock prices, and for example, do a 20 day moving average,then ~68% of the time the price will fluctuate 1 standard deviation,95% of the time, the price will fluctuate 2 standard deviations and99,7% of the time, the price will fluctuate 3 standard deviations.when the price is moving, up or down the standard deviations "expand" in width, when the price is stable, or flat, the standard deviations "bands" are narrowYou can get an "idea" of whats happening by looking at the width of the surrounding 2 standard deviation bands.right now IF you look at the last 20 days (1 trading month) of the S fund, the 20 day SMA is curving UP, the "bollinger bands", the 2 standard deviation bands +/- are getting "wider" and the S fund has the "look" to me, after being in the markets since the late 1970's/early 1980's of PERHAPS being in an upward trend, maybe.Thats WHY i'm both 100% S fund and sticking there for a while as at present, my S fund, "is a winner" so WHY should I sell?since im retired and on a fixed income, i do have time to look at thingsbelow is the data for the S fund,20 days of Moving average and +2SD and -2SD.remember, it's your money and your retirement and potentially _all_ you will have when you retire
44.11 45.42 42.80 44.00 45.27 42.72 43.90 45.09 42.71 43.85 44.97 42.72 43.79 44.82 42.76 43.74 44.67 42.80 43.68 44.56 42.80 43.64 44.51 42.76 43.63 44.52 42.74 43.64 44.56 42.71 43.65 44.60 42.70 43.64 44.53 42.75 43.63 44.51 42.75 43.65 44.62 42.68 43.70 44.73 42.67 43.75 44.84 42.66 43.80 44.95 42.65 43.87 45.09 42.64 43.95 45.25 42.65 44.03 45.35 42.71 From: "poptopwater@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, September 18, 2017 2:30 PM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?
"3) why do you want to sell a winner? seriously WHY? it's loser's you sell. basic investing. it's your money"Can you define "winner" and "loser" for us? I think some participants are considering "buy low, sell high" strategy at the moment.
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Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>
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