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[TSP_Strategy] October Surprise?

[TSP_Strategy] October Surprise?

 

Get ready for the stock market's October surprise

By Mark Hulbert

Published: Sept 26, 2017 11:51 a.m. ET

Investors can expect a bumpier ride down Wall Street

Fasten your seatbelts. October is just around the corner, and historically it's the most volatile month of all for stocks.

The data are summarized in the chart, below. (For the statisticians among you: The standard deviation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's DJIA, +0.11%   daily percentage changes in past Octobers is 1.44%, in contrast to 1.08% across all 12 months taken together.)




You might think that October is an outlier because of the 1987 Crash; on Oct. 19 of that year the Dow fell 22%. But that year accounts for only a small portion of October's above-average volatility; October tops the monthly volatility rankings even if we exclude 1987.

To be sure, the data that appear in the accompanying chart are based on more than 100 years of history, and there is considerable variation in the historical record. So there is no guarantee that the stock market in October of this year will experience above-average volatility. But you probably should be prepared for it nonetheless, since — compared to price trends — volatility trends in the stock market tend to be relatively predictable.

How should you prepare for a volatile October? Probably the best way is to resolve not to panic if and when there is a spike in volatility. Despite the month's dubious honor at the top of the volatility rankings, for example, its average performance is no worse than average — in seventh place, in fact, when ranked according to average Dow performance since that benchmark was created in the late 1800s. Since 2000, furthermore, October is in third place in a ranking of monthly performance, with an average gain of 1.84%.

Another factoid that may help you stay the course in the face of a spike in volatility: far more bull markets have begun in October than have ended. This, by the way, is the source of October's reputation as a "bear killer."

Consider the bull market calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research, according to which there have been 35 bull markets since the beginning of the last century. No fewer than eight of those bull markets began in October. If bull market beginnings had been randomly distributed across all months of the calendar, fewer than three would have begun in October.

To be sure, no one way is saying that we'll see a new bull market begin this October. But it's worth noting that a below-average number of bear markets have begun during the month—just one of the 35 in the Ned Davis calendar did so, in fact.

The bottom line: The stock market is due for a wild ride in October, but its volatility is not likely to spell the end of the bull market.

 


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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[TSP_Strategy] Annual Return Expected in Retirement

[TSP_Strategy] Annual Return Expected in Retirement

 

Charts of the Week

Annual Return Expected in Retirement

Chart of the Week for September 29, 2017 - October 5, 2017

Investors and advisors have different expectations of investment returns in retirement.

In September 2017, Ignites Research ("Ignites") published a study on investors' and advisors' views on retirement income products. One of the topics covered in the study was investment returns in retirement from the view of both advisors and investors in Defined Contribution plans. 

Investors are expected to have varying levels of investment experience, while advisors are expected to have more investment experience. The different return expectations are noteworthy. Sixty-five percent of advisors expected returns between 3% and 4% per year in retirement, while sixty-three percent of investors expected returns of between 5% and 6% per year in retirement. Setting return expectations is an important part of a retirement planning. If investors believe they will earn a higher rate of return in retirement, they may not save enough during their working years and run the risk of out living their money. Conservative return assumptions may help mitigate this risk.


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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[TSP_Strategy] S & C funds since 2008

 

here is a small graph of S & C funds since 1/2/2008
1) Read right to left !!
2) the data is smoothed with a 20 day (1 month) simple moving average
2a) vertical bars are 250 day divisors, or about 1 year
3) the data is bounded, upper and lower, with 2 standard deviation bands, as 95% of raw data should stay inside the bands.
4) the S fund did lots better, more or less, than the C fund over the 10 year span
5) the C fund did fairly well also
6) both funds gained in value
7) it would be difficult to gauge the highs and lows, and not miss out on rises

Inline image

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Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Contrarian Sell Signal

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Contrarian Sell Signal

 

A "look back" in time
"Sell high, buy low"
8/3/2017 
G Fund  
15.3962
S fund
44.1624

28Sep-17
G Fund
15.4478
S Fund
46.1071

So G fund Up 0.3351%
So S fund Up 4.4035%

in understandable numbers
$250,000 in G fund would be worth $250,837.75
$250,000 in S fund would be worth $261,008.75

ie, you threw away some multiple of $10,000

I prefer "Cut your losses, and let your profits run"


From: "A'ndrea Emery aemery04@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, August 12, 2017 4:30 PM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Contrarian Sell Signal

 
Sarah - Am I reading that you moved from 100% S to 100% G as of this month?
Or is your recommendation to stay 100% S until end of this year at this point?  I'm way way away from retiring so I'm willing to take more risk.
Thank you in advance.

Sent from my iPhone

On Aug 11, 2017, at 12:58 PM, sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 
@Mike Tucker
I went 100% G COB 8/3. 
Reasoning:  prices bounced off resistance at or near all time highs for 3 days in a row, moving averages were converging (especially for S fund), seasonal trends point toward F or G fund for the months of August and September, and I'm going on vacation in 2 weeks :)
Sell high, buy low. My 12 month PIP is 15.07% as of this morning thanks to information sharing from all you great people!!

You're wonderful, thanks!  Now please remember to tell us when u decide to get back in.

__._,_.___

Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (28)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] What Makes the FERS Supplement Special

[TSP_Strategy] What Makes the FERS Supplement Special

 

What Makes the FERS Supplement Special

4:40 PM ET

The Federal Employees Retirement System annuity supplement is important for those covered under FERS who plan to retire before turning 62, but it is especially significant to those who must retire early under special provisions that apply to certain groups of employees: law enforcement officers, firefighters, air traffic controllers, National Guard technicians, Customs and Border Protection officers, nuclear materials couriers and special agents of the Diplomatic Security Service—as well as a few other positions.

Although the special provisions apply to a large number of employees at agencies such as the FBI and the Secret Service, they cover a smaller portion of employees at agencies like the Food and Drug Administration. It can be difficult for some special group employees to get information about specific retirement rules for them that are slightly different due to their retirement coverage. These differences include an earlier retirement age with eligibility to retire with less service than other employees, immediate cost-of-living adjustments, a more generous retirement computation, and an immediate FERS retirement supplement.

To help with this week's column, I called on Dan Jamison, who is a certified public accountant and retired FBI agent. For more than 20 years, he has produced a FERS retirement guide for special category federal employees.

The FERS retirement supplement bridges the time between the beginning of retirement and the age you qualify for Social Security retirement—which is generally 62. This benefit provides a source of income that mimics the age 62 Social Security benefit, but is computed using only civilian federal service creditable to the FERS retirement benefit. About half of all FERS employees are entitled to this benefit when they retire. To receive the supplement, you must be eligible for an immediate, unreduced FERS retirement benefit. In addition to employees with special retirement coverage, employees who retire at the FERS minimum retirement age with at least 30 years of service or those at age 60 with at least 20 years of service are entitled to the FERS supplement. The supplement ends when a recipient turns 62 and is subject to an earnings test from the minimum retirement age until the supplement ends at age 62. The earnings test can cause a reduction or elimination of the supplement.

The FERS supplement is generally payable at retirement for special coverage employees when they retire as early as age 50 with 20 years of covered service. It's sometimes available even earlier for employees eligible to retire when they complete 25 years of covered service. This benefit is especially important those in the special coverage groups, because the mandatory retirement age for most of them is 57. (It's 56 for air traffic controllers).

Dan said one of the things many employees find difficult to understand is the annual earnings test. For special coverage groups, the earnings test is applied once the retiree reaches the FERS minimum retirement age.

Let's suppose Josie, a federal law enforcement officer, plans to retire at 51 on Dec. 31, 2017, with 20 years of service. Her date of birth is Nov. 15, 1966. Her minimum retirement age is 56 years and four months. She won't be subject to the annual earnings test until she has reached that age.

Now, let's fast-forward and see what happens when Josie turns 56. Assume she has been receiving a FERS supplement of $900 per month, or $10,800 annually.

She will reach her minimum retirement age on March 15, 2023. Josie will not be subject to the earnings test until 2023 because she didn't reach her MRA by the end of 2022. Josie will continue to receive her full, unreduced supplement during 2023. An annual earnings survey (Retirement and Insurance Form RI 92-22) will be sent to her early in 2024.

Let's assume Josie earns $36,000 per year. On the earnings survey, she will report all earnings from 2023 received after reaching her MRA. That adds up to $27,000 (nine months of wages). The reduction to her supplement is computed at $1 for every $2 in earned income over the limit. The earnings limit amount for 2017 is $16,920 per year. If Josie earned $13,080 over the 2024 earnings limit, then her supplement would be reduced by dividing the amount over $13,080 in half, arriving at an annual reduction of $6,540. After the reduction is applied ($10,800 - $6,540), the new supplement rate becomes $4,260 annually, or $355 per month. So, effective in July 2024, Josie will see her supplement reduced from $900 per month—which she had been receiving since retirement—to $355 per month.

In April 2025, Josie will receive another earnings survey. At this point, let's say she increased her earnings to $75,000 a year in 2024. That means with the July 2025 annuity payment, she will see her supplement reduced to zero.

Now supposed Josie decides to fully retire in December 2025 at age 59. Once she can provide proof of her earnings level going below the annual limit, she can file to restore the supplement. This proof is generally a tax return—in this case, her 2026 return, which would be the first to show the reduced income. After a long process of submitting new lower wage reports to OPM and gaining approval to restore the supplement, then it will be reinstated. The supplement ends at age 62 for all FERS participants.

Dan reminds retirees that it is not a good idea to contact OPM and report job changes or earnings. Instead, it is better to wait to receive the RI 92-22 earnings survey in the mail. It is very important to update any address changes to OPM, so that the earnings survey is not returned by the post office. If your whereabouts are unknown, OPM will typically stop the supplement payment. Contact OPM immediately if you don't receive an earnings survey by mid-May if you have reached your minimum retirement age by Dec. 31 and still haven't turned 62.

If you're subject to the earnings limit at retirement, you only need to report earnings from wages and salaries earned after your retirement date. You do not need to report the payment of your unused annual leave. There is a good description of earnings on the back of the earnings survey form. The definition of earnings that count against the supplement is the same definition of earnings used by Social Security to apply the earnings limit from age 62 to your full retirement age.

Policymakers have proposed eliminating the FERS supplement over the years—including this one. But so far, it's still available to eligible federal retirees. The FERS supplement is one of the benefits included when FERS was implemented that allows federal employees to plan for retirement with similar age and service requirements as employees who retire under the older Civil Service Retirement System.

Photo: 401kcalculator.org


4:40 PM ET

http://www.govexec.com/pay-benefits/retirement-planning/2017/09/what-makes-fers-supplement-special/141372/


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (1)

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Anyone Jumping Out of S?

 

Thanks Sarah - do you think this based on the strength of this months rally?

No.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (37)

Check out the automatic photo album with 4 photo(s) from this topic.
image1.PNG image1.PNG image1.PNG image1.PNG

Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___