If we do get a short term bounce it might not be much. Taking another look at the DWCPF annual chart Sarah sent recently (see below), it looks to me like the pattern that's repeating is actually from June to December.
- June high (1140) was followed by an August low (990), a brief bounce (1060) and a lower low in September (940), before rising but never exceeding 1060 the rest of the year.
- December high (1060) was followed by a January low (880), a brief bounce (920) and a lower low in February (840). It is up slightly from there.
So, if the pattern repeats, it looks like DWCPF might not brush up against 920 for very long before the dreaded plunge to 700 some are expecting. (A 38% drop from June high could take years to break even.)
If DWCPF rises anywhere near 920 would that be a good sign to complete the transfer out of any remaining funds in S and C (assuming you don't want to just ride it out for the long term)?
[I still have 25% left in C. It will be interesting to see what happens when the stock market reopens on Tuesday!]
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Posted by: jmbud2@gmail.com
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