Thank you for the article...it provides a lot of good information for short term investing. It does not; however, in my opinion, seem to be applicable for long term investors (i.e. those of us trying to maximize our TSP earnings). Especially those of us with limited-time-to-retirement horizons. No question that if I had another 20 years to retirement, I would probably be more inclined to ride out the prognosticated volatility of 2016 in stock-based funds, but I don't have that long to recover from a (certain but at some unknown timing) future major market downturn. Even if I did ride out 2016 and the stock funds finish near their current levels (for that matter, with the volatility in 2015 was the risk worth it), what then...the market finally tanks and I am then caught holding the bag after a large downward move?.
The TSP does not lend itself to the methods used in short term trading as it was not designed for that, nor does it allow itself to be used in that manner. Therefore, you cannot simply buy on weakness and sell on strength with short term moves in the market as you cannot make a trade or change in funds/allocations instantaneously with the TSP.
I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but just wanted to try to cut through the unending supply of analysis, market hype, and Pundits' crystal balls. After all, the majority of TSP investors do not have a clue about how the global economy works or why it does what it does, nor can they understand the confusing and (again) endless conflicting analyses often presented by those with their own personal agendas. If we are lucky, we have some general understanding of Macro economics vs. micro.
I believe in following the markets, but in the case of TSP investments try not to make any changes but maybe once a quarter, if that often. I'm in G with small portion in F funds and have been for some time. Piling as much in and preserving capital until the up side of the next recovery. Too much sideways movement in the stock indexes with not much if any upside right now in my opinion.
Posted by: davidboothby80@yahoo.com
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