Ive been in the C fund since Jan 8, and Im expecting nothing earth shattering from the fed. I think were going to skid along the bottom here for a while, but eventually get up. But if the fed decides not to raise rates for a while, the dollar will go down, which will make oil go up and it seems that the market and oil are intertwined right now. So we could get a nice rebound in the coming weeks. There is an open gap at around 2040 that will most likely get filled and that will be an exit point for me, although i think it will be months down the road until we get there. I plan on trading the waves to get up to that point. I usually do well using all my transfers for a month. I usually out perform the market by an average 8%. But you really got to watch things. Now all these gains Ive got are during a bull market, but i have no experience with a bear market. For instance i was up 8.1% back in Dec. But ended the year 5.4% So any moves i make in the coming months will be really quick if we continue lower. But for now im trying to get back to 1950 cuz im down -2% for the year.
Thank you, Jim. I'm looking forward to the follow on discussion.
Since TSP Strategy switched to 100% S nearly a year ago it is down 16.3%. That's 3.6% lower than the DWCPF 925 support level Sarah identified a while back. The number of conversations is way down right now, so I thought I'd ask a few questions in the interest of learning from others.
Is there an exit strategy or a new upper level we're looking for on a bounce to either lock in gains or cut losses and move to a safer or more promising fund? If not, how different is this from a buy and hold strategy?
As of yesterday's close, the 5 year performance of the S Fund is up 33.5% or about 6% per year. C is up about 48% or about 9% per year. Those returns sounds pretty good, especially for those many years from needing to make withdrawals. But, aren't there other approaches using only one or two trades per year that might do even better over a multiple year time frame?
For example, does it make sense to move into G or another fund with higher upside potential when lower limits are breached (like the recent 925 level)? How about when enhanced moving averages analysis indicates long rising trends have slowed (like last July) or are starting to reverse direction (like mid-December)?
Has anyone who makes 100% moves between TSP Funds back-checked any strategies like these to compare how they perform to buy and hold, especially during sideways and bear markets?
BTW -- I greatly appreciate the patience, experience and technical insight Sarah shares with us even though I am not a "100% in one fund" investor. I have nowhere near as much experience or technical market analysis skills. I use Sarah's input in part to decide when to make modest adjustments to my portfolio allocation of 3 to 5 TSP funds two or three times per year in an attempt to preserve long term gains and reduce risk. I'm not always successful, but the more I learn the more comfortable I am with my decisions.
I hope the responses to these questions are helpful to all.
Jim
Posted by: ryan smith <mashiach7@yahoo.com>
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