Yes, informational. My goal is to provide as much pertinent information as possible to go along with my recommendations.
No - my strategy does not require five different allocations. You only need to make two allocation changes per year switching in and out of the equity funds.
To be more specific subscribers can follow the C fund timing signal or the S fund timing signal. They usually signal close together, but small caps funds do not track in lock-step with the large cap funds. I added additional signals for non-TSP accounts index funds and one combined signal for the C and S fund - I think this is where you got the idea there are five allocations.
I am not sure if I understand your one allocation question. Are you asking why not provide one allocation signal based on whether we are in a bull or bear market? Some of my subscribers have indicated they do this with my information, but I recommend overlaying this information with the seasonal strategy for the best risk-adjusted returns. And again, I do make a recommendation on what fund(s) to allocate in each year.
The bull/bear picture provides indications of increasing levels of risk to the market that lends itself more to increasing and decreasing exposure to equities. It requires an ensemble of indicators and factors to build the picture and I track many of them in my monthly current situation report for those who want that level of information. I do make recommendations for lowering allocations to equities based on this information, but the seasonal models simply provide signals when to enter and exit each year.
The most basic service you quoted is like an alarm clock that goes off twice a year reminding people when to get in and out using a time-tested seasonal strategy. E-mail alerts are sent out and I provide two summaries a year at this level. But even this level gets warned of my indications of bear markets and yes I did override the signal in October and stayed in the G fund. I offer other levels of service because I found investors all want different levels of information.
I do not offer a trading black box at any level and I don't pretend to know everything. But I think the information I track and dig up helps investors make more informed allocation decisions. In the end, investors have to make the final decision so I think they need to know why changes are recommended and what the risks are.
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Posted by: Michael Bond <michaelhbond@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.
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