[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

 Just looking for a point to withdraw and preserve what I have...

Me, too.

Yes, should have done it at DWCPF 1005...Got greedy.  Should have done it at 925...was hoping for the historical DEC/JAN bump up.  Instead, for JAN the NASDAQ has suffered the biggest loss in the history of the Market; DOW/S&P third worst JAN in history...

Realizing that Januarys tend to be bullish; that when this bear hit, it was very fast and very dramatic; and that you can't trade your TSP with tremendous nimbleness; it is understandable that we got caught. Had we moved out, and the market moved higher, you'd be kicking yourself also.

We have many conflicting forces here. 

1. The markets were high. (bearish)
2. We are coming out of a recession. (bullish)
3. China is going into a recession (bearish)
4. Europe and Asia are coming out of recession (bullish)
5. US raised interest rates. (bullish)
6. Commodity prices crashing (bearish)

I believe that once the markets return to more reasonable prices, we'll be back into bullish mode.

C fund - 1500
S fund - 700
I fund - 50

Don't want to ride the Bear to the bottom like last time...

And don't want to miss a significant rebound, should one occur.

Imagine if you got out now, the markets rebounded 8-12%, you then got back in, and the markets
collapsed again, going even lower....

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com

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