My few technical indicators for stocks are strongly down, residing a bit below corresponding numbers around late August and early September. Government interest rates are up a bit. The transports (Dow) are hitting new lows and yet so is oil. Copper is also hitting new lows.
Consumer-related indicators are strong. Apparently according to the W Post, so is employment. So the economic indicators are a mixed bag if commodity values are factored in. For the future, one would assume that lower commodity prices would bode positively for the economy. This is not a sure bet.
I believe that the global impact of difficulties in China is either overstated on the downside or is a relatively short-lived phenomenon. This is certainly a different situation than the crisis involving weaker European economies a few years ago, in that China's economy should be far less likely to implode than, say, Greece's. Thus, I am simply proposing that an overreaction by stocks globally is far more likely than a sustained bear market lasting for a few years or more.
Two things: (1) I do not claim knowledge or prescience with regard to China or global stocks and am speaking merely from the historic tendency of stocks to overreact to major changes or thrusts in economics or financial innovation. After all, sometimes the markets are right on short time scales, similar to the stopped clock being right twice per day. (2) Among my major weaknesses is the tendency to hold on to investments for way too long. So I am still 100% in S, at least partially out of the tendency not to act at all. While this will almost always make money over decades, I do not advise that anyone else use the same approach -- it is simply too irritating to watch stock prices plummet over short periods of time. Rather as usual, it is easier on the psyche to allocate 50% to fixed income (G or F) and 50% to stocks (C, S, or I), perhaps adjusting the allocation within the two categories based on current conditions and hopefully a working historical knowledge of cause and effect within each category. Acquiring the latter requires some dedication over a long time period.
As usual, I am attempting only to stimulate thought. A contrary reaction or abject disbelief by TSP board readers might be the best way to go. Alternatively, the admission of no knowledge might in fact lead to the best allocations and investment returns.
Good luck and Happy New Year,
Tex
Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
| Reply via web post | • | Reply to sender | • | Reply to group | • | Start a New Topic | • | Messages in this topic (1) |
Belum ada komentar untuk "[TSP_Strategy] current stock indicators"
Post a Comment