Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

@bradley.stubbs

20 days is essentially 1 month after you subtract out the weekends and occasional holidays

Easiest way to get data

1) do you have excel?

Go to tspcenter.com

You can get chunks of data in 999 day increments 

There are about 260 trading days in a year, minus weekends (104) holidays ~12+)

Do a highlight, copy paste

Go all the way back if you wish

Use their format as it is easier

(You have a blank column just ignore it)

DONT mess with that data

First I get slopes

(My top row is row 10 for consistency if I need scratch pad rows 2-8 suffice)

Column A is the date column

After initial data is added, newest date at the top in row 10

First 5 column are a 20 day number of the Slope of the line Ie is Slope up, flat or down

Slopes for G, F, C, S, I

SLOPE(H10:H28,$A10:A28)

This computes the 20 day slope of column H versus the date range of column A

You get 5 columns of slopes, note: G & F are essentially _flat_, _gains_ and _losses_ are not a lot

_This is same order as your raw data_

I don't bother much with G fund as that is essentially "ca$h"

Next I copy column I (F fund) to column R, the first open column

Next column is the 20 day moving average

AVERAGE(R10:R29) 

Next column is the +2 standard deviation bollinger band. (These bands expand and contract as stock or equity becomes more or less volatile)

S10+STDEVPA(I10:I28)

Next column 

S10-STDEVPA(I10:I28)

Repeat these for C, S, I funds

Copy the column for C

Then 20 day avg, +/- 2SD cols 

Copy the column for S

Repeat

Copy the column for I

Repeat

Graph your favorites 

I like about a 2 month of slopes and funds and adjust them daily

This is why I like row 10 as my base row

It is easy to adjust graph, highlighting rows in graph and changing start as row 10 and end as row 48 or so

This give me a 6 week graph

I add a liner regression to the graph by highlighting 20 day line and click "trend line linear"

Many of the financial folks use these same timeframes so this gives me a dim view into their collective thoughts about "where are things going"

Obviously I and a lot of folks missed the "black swan" last February March but notice if you did nothing you lost nothing from the graphs

Over in the far far right I have a column with number of shares we own times value of fund

I also have a sheet detailing but/sell flags that is fair and track some individual stocks in other sheets where I calculate A/D accumulation distribution line based on vol, open high low close

Hope this helps

On Nov 29, 2020, at 12:16 AM, Brad Stubbs via groups.io <bradley.stubbs=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Thanks.  Looks I need to start collecting some data.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of winfield100 via groups.io
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 7:18 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

I am still 100% S fund and retired in March 2016

 

I graph the funds daily with 20 day moving averages and +/- 2 standard deviation bands

and a linear regression line

 

I graph the daily, 5 day, 20 day and 50 day moving averages and make an oscillator from summations of ifttt logicals

 

I graph the slopes of the funds and oscillators of same

 

I follow the markets to get overall view

I follow technology trends

 

I do not trade

 

If you do some or all of the above you may get a feel for the markets and the millions of folks who make up the economy 

 

Right now we seem to be going from chaos and randomness to more certainty

 

The markets love certainty it seems

The symbol for the S fund is DWCPF so it is easy to follow

 

We also lived frugally our whole lives and lived long enough to enjoy retirement 

 

Hope this helps a bit

On Nov 28, 2020, at 5:56 PM, Brad Stubbs via groups.io <bradley.stubbs=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Any thoughts on allocations within TSP for those already retired?

I don't need to take withdrawals now but RMD's are < 7 years away.

My thought is to keep at least 30% in equities to provide some growth and offset potential inflation.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of Locutusoftexas
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 5:31 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

To thebigzwatson:

FYI: Here is what happened in 1987. In January, many speculators and inexperienced investors were diving into stocks, which is a contrarian sell signal. i had done better than I thought I would; so being risk averse by nature, I went to money markets. The market then continued upward through August in what many thought was a speculative frenzy. I held money markets the entire time and was miserable about the money that i had left on the table. Then October 19 happened and by December 31 I had done better than anyone who stayed in stocks during the entire year.

This year has been unprecedented (even back to the flu pandemic of 1918). People can congratulate themselves on their courage at staying in the market over the whole year. Nevertheless the stock market is beyond overvalued. No one can be faulted for taking money off the table. Ultimately I believe that the market will crash. No one knows when and I might be wrong.

If you have 20 years before retirement, then you might consider choosing a comfortable asset allocation, e.g., 50% stocks & 50% G (or say 25% G 25% F) and just rebalance periodically to maintain it. Meanwhile, you can get to that allocation from 100% G by moving some fixed percentage of your G fund to a stock fund each month. Another way would be to put say 5% into stocks each time the stock indices go down 5% until you reach your asset allocation goal.

Either way don't get discouraged. Take your time to retirement and consider setting an asset allocation that you can live with and getting there by moving systematically into a stock fund some percentage of the G assets.

The worst thing about moving money out of stocks is deciding when or how to get back in. This is why trading is generally a bad idea.

These are just suggestions. No one knows what is the best course of action for a given person but that person alone

Good luck,
Tex

Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

Thanks.  Looks I need to start collecting some data.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of winfield100 via groups.io
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 7:18 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

I am still 100% S fund and retired in March 2016

 

I graph the funds daily with 20 day moving averages and +/- 2 standard deviation bands

and a linear regression line

 

I graph the daily, 5 day, 20 day and 50 day moving averages and make an oscillator from summations of ifttt logicals

 

I graph the slopes of the funds and oscillators of same

 

I follow the markets to get overall view

I follow technology trends

 

I do not trade

 

If you do some or all of the above you may get a feel for the markets and the millions of folks who make up the economy 

 

Right now we seem to be going from chaos and randomness to more certainty

 

The markets love certainty it seems

The symbol for the S fund is DWCPF so it is easy to follow

 

We also lived frugally our whole lives and lived long enough to enjoy retirement 

 

Hope this helps a bit

On Nov 28, 2020, at 5:56 PM, Brad Stubbs via groups.io <bradley.stubbs=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Any thoughts on allocations within TSP for those already retired?

I don't need to take withdrawals now but RMD's are < 7 years away.

My thought is to keep at least 30% in equities to provide some growth and offset potential inflation.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of Locutusoftexas
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 5:31 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

To thebigzwatson:

FYI: Here is what happened in 1987. In January, many speculators and inexperienced investors were diving into stocks, which is a contrarian sell signal. i had done better than I thought I would; so being risk averse by nature, I went to money markets. The market then continued upward through August in what many thought was a speculative frenzy. I held money markets the entire time and was miserable about the money that i had left on the table. Then October 19 happened and by December 31 I had done better than anyone who stayed in stocks during the entire year.

This year has been unprecedented (even back to the flu pandemic of 1918). People can congratulate themselves on their courage at staying in the market over the whole year. Nevertheless the stock market is beyond overvalued. No one can be faulted for taking money off the table. Ultimately I believe that the market will crash. No one knows when and I might be wrong.

If you have 20 years before retirement, then you might consider choosing a comfortable asset allocation, e.g., 50% stocks & 50% G (or say 25% G 25% F) and just rebalance periodically to maintain it. Meanwhile, you can get to that allocation from 100% G by moving some fixed percentage of your G fund to a stock fund each month. Another way would be to put say 5% into stocks each time the stock indices go down 5% until you reach your asset allocation goal.

Either way don't get discouraged. Take your time to retirement and consider setting an asset allocation that you can live with and getting there by moving systematically into a stock fund some percentage of the G assets.

The worst thing about moving money out of stocks is deciding when or how to get back in. This is why trading is generally a bad idea.

These are just suggestions. No one knows what is the best course of action for a given person but that person alone

Good luck,
Tex

Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

I am still 100% S fund and retired in March 2016

I graph the funds daily with 20 day moving averages and +/- 2 standard deviation bands

and a linear regression line

I graph the daily, 5 day, 20 day and 50 day moving averages and make an oscillator from summations of ifttt logicals

I graph the slopes of the funds and oscillators of same

I follow the markets to get overall view

I follow technology trends

I do not trade

If you do some or all of the above you may get a feel for the markets and the millions of folks who make up the economy 

Right now we seem to be going from chaos and randomness to more certainty

The markets love certainty it seems

The symbol for the S fund is DWCPF so it is easy to follow

We also lived frugally our whole lives and lived long enough to enjoy retirement 

Hope this helps a bit

On Nov 28, 2020, at 5:56 PM, Brad Stubbs via groups.io <bradley.stubbs=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Any thoughts on allocations within TSP for those already retired?

I don't need to take withdrawals now but RMD's are < 7 years away.

My thought is to keep at least 30% in equities to provide some growth and offset potential inflation.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of Locutusoftexas
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 5:31 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

To thebigzwatson:

FYI: Here is what happened in 1987. In January, many speculators and inexperienced investors were diving into stocks, which is a contrarian sell signal. i had done better than I thought I would; so being risk averse by nature, I went to money markets. The market then continued upward through August in what many thought was a speculative frenzy. I held money markets the entire time and was miserable about the money that i had left on the table. Then October 19 happened and by December 31 I had done better than anyone who stayed in stocks during the entire year.

This year has been unprecedented (even back to the flu pandemic of 1918). People can congratulate themselves on their courage at staying in the market over the whole year. Nevertheless the stock market is beyond overvalued. No one can be faulted for taking money off the table. Ultimately I believe that the market will crash. No one knows when and I might be wrong.

If you have 20 years before retirement, then you might consider choosing a comfortable asset allocation, e.g., 50% stocks & 50% G (or say 25% G 25% F) and just rebalance periodically to maintain it. Meanwhile, you can get to that allocation from 100% G by moving some fixed percentage of your G fund to a stock fund each month. Another way would be to put say 5% into stocks each time the stock indices go down 5% until you reach your asset allocation goal.

Either way don't get discouraged. Take your time to retirement and consider setting an asset allocation that you can live with and getting there by moving systematically into a stock fund some percentage of the G assets.

The worst thing about moving money out of stocks is deciding when or how to get back in. This is why trading is generally a bad idea.

These are just suggestions. No one knows what is the best course of action for a given person but that person alone

Good luck,
Tex

Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

Any thoughts on allocations within TSP for those already retired?

I don't need to take withdrawals now but RMD's are < 7 years away.

My thought is to keep at least 30% in equities to provide some growth and offset potential inflation.

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of Locutusoftexas
Sent: Saturday, November 28, 2020 5:31 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

To thebigzwatson:

FYI: Here is what happened in 1987. In January, many speculators and inexperienced investors were diving into stocks, which is a contrarian sell signal. i had done better than I thought I would; so being risk averse by nature, I went to money markets. The market then continued upward through August in what many thought was a speculative frenzy. I held money markets the entire time and was miserable about the money that i had left on the table. Then October 19 happened and by December 31 I had done better than anyone who stayed in stocks during the entire year.

This year has been unprecedented (even back to the flu pandemic of 1918). People can congratulate themselves on their courage at staying in the market over the whole year. Nevertheless the stock market is beyond overvalued. No one can be faulted for taking money off the table. Ultimately I believe that the market will crash. No one knows when and I might be wrong.

If you have 20 years before retirement, then you might consider choosing a comfortable asset allocation, e.g., 50% stocks & 50% G (or say 25% G 25% F) and just rebalance periodically to maintain it. Meanwhile, you can get to that allocation from 100% G by moving some fixed percentage of your G fund to a stock fund each month. Another way would be to put say 5% into stocks each time the stock indices go down 5% until you reach your asset allocation goal.

Either way don't get discouraged. Take your time to retirement and consider setting an asset allocation that you can live with and getting there by moving systematically into a stock fund some percentage of the G assets.

The worst thing about moving money out of stocks is deciding when or how to get back in. This is why trading is generally a bad idea.

These are just suggestions. No one knows what is the best course of action for a given person but that person alone

Good luck,
Tex

Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

To thebigzwatson:

FYI: Here is what happened in 1987. In January, many speculators and inexperienced investors were diving into stocks, which is a contrarian sell signal. i had done better than I thought I would; so being risk averse by nature, I went to money markets. The market then continued upward through August in what many thought was a speculative frenzy. I held money markets the entire time and was miserable about the money that i had left on the table. Then October 19 happened and by December 31 I had done better than anyone who stayed in stocks during the entire year.

This year has been unprecedented (even back to the flu pandemic of 1918). People can congratulate themselves on their courage at staying in the market over the whole year. Nevertheless the stock market is beyond overvalued. No one can be faulted for taking money off the table. Ultimately I believe that the market will crash. No one knows when and I might be wrong.

If you have 20 years before retirement, then you might consider choosing a comfortable asset allocation, e.g., 50% stocks & 50% G (or say 25% G 25% F) and just rebalance periodically to maintain it. Meanwhile, you can get to that allocation from 100% G by moving some fixed percentage of your G fund to a stock fund each month. Another way would be to put say 5% into stocks each time the stock indices go down 5% until you reach your asset allocation goal.

Either way don't get discouraged. Take your time to retirement and consider setting an asset allocation that you can live with and getting there by moving systematically into a stock fund some percentage of the G assets.

The worst thing about moving money out of stocks is deciding when or how to get back in. This is why trading is generally a bad idea.

These are just suggestions. No one knows what is the best course of action for a given person but that person alone.

Good luck,
Tex

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

Roman,

I wish to comment on the necessity of having a house paid off early.  I retired in 2016 a coupe years after a divorce.  At that time my house was within 5 years of being paid off using a 15 year mortgage.  The houses in my area rent for over $2000 per month.  My mortgage payment is $1100 and I have a 3% loan.  To me it made more sense to keep my cash for travel and fun (and necessities) rather than pay off the house with a big chunk.  It's good to pay off as much as you can while you're working but once that paycheck stops and isn't replaced in kind, it might be better to keep the cash handy and not be forced into taking out a loan on your home.  

And yes, I too rode out the storm and am very happy with the current status.  I'm actually at an all time high, just trying to figure out when it's time to put it all in G.  

---

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of Roman <romansmr2@gmail.com>
Sent: Sunday, September 6, 2020 9:23 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Congrats to everyone that stayed the course

 

I will try hard not to move to G even close to retirement.  I believe the markets will always be on our side.  

I have my mind set that our pension is our G fund, bond like allocation which the amount is known for retirement.  My strategy is to pull out money from TSP only in years that are up.  When they are down I would not pull any money and if I have to, I will move the funds to a dividend fund or those ARKK funds which look to be managed very well with lots of transparency.  I have also been following Kathy from Ark Investments to get ideas on what business she is buying into her funds.

Want to pay off the house, just got a 15 year (dropped from 23 years) 4.0% to under 2% savings over 70K. 

 

Re: [TSPStrategy] TSP Allocation's for 2021

 No window, you can adjust at anytime.

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Re: [TSPStrategy] TSP Allocation's for 2021

I believe it's 12/19/20

On Thu, Nov 26, 2020 at 11:52 AM Robert Hogan <robert@connect2hogan.com> wrote:

Right now I'm putting in $1300 pp because I had to do some adjustments are the beginning of the year so I was wanting to know the window to adjust back to $750 pp.

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Off Topic: Health Care Spending Accounts

95% of my FSA claims are automated.  When I bought prescription sunglasses from Oakley, I had to turn in a claim with the invoice to get reimbursed.  When I get a massage, it's automated at one of the spas that i go to, and other other one I have to make sure I get a receipt if I want to be reimbursed (if I'm already close to using up all my funds with other expenses, I don't bother).

 

It's a dead simple way to keep some of your taxes in your own pocket.  I'd recommend it to anyone (that doesn't have a HSA/high deductible insurance).

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Re: [TSPStrategy] TSP Allocation's for 2021

Also those doing catchup will need to adjust due to the catchup changes.

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Re: [TSPStrategy] TSP Allocation's for 2021

Right now I'm putting in $1300 pp because I had to do some adjustments are the beginning of the year so I was wanting to know the window to adjust back to $750 pp.

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Re: [TSPStrategy] TSP Allocation's for 2021

What changes are you wanting to make? I don't know of anything different for 2021. The max is still 19,500.

On Thu, Nov 26, 2020 at 10:41 AM Robert Hogan <robert@connect2hogan.com> wrote:

Just wondering what is the drop dead date to make the adjustments for TSP Allocations for 2021, I know it's in December but not quite sure of the dates to reflect 2021 changes.  

Thanks

Rob

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[TSPStrategy] TSP Allocation's for 2021

Just wondering what is the drop dead date to make the adjustments for TSP Allocations for 2021, I know it's in December but not quite sure of the dates to reflect 2021 changes.  

Thanks

Rob

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

0.75%

Been dca into their funds for a couple months now in a roll over ira to see how they do vs. My own management in my roth.

I like how it is a very focused on disruptive Innovation.  So hopefully getting mostly winners vs the average market.

As easy as etfs are, I think their usefulness is diminishing as there are a lot of companies still around soley because of the automatic buying in the etfs and we are at a point where we have a lot of zombie companies, that need to go.

Bryan 

On Wed, Nov 25, 2020, 2:31 PM Mike Sall via groups.io <standards1022=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

ARKG is a new shiny object for me.  Any idea what the expense ratio's run for ARK ETF's?

Thank You, WMS

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

No idea, i just follow _because_ Cathy Wood is early believer in Tesla and has $10 Billion under management in her funds

I am not an investment advisor, i have lost an extreme amount of money in my life like between 7 and 8 figures thru hubris 

On Wednesday, November 25, 2020, 02:31:54 PM EST, Mike Sall via groups.io <standards1022=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

ARKG is a new shiny object for me.  Any idea what the expense ratio's run for ARK ETF's?

Thank You, WMS

Re: [TSPStrategy] Off Topic: Health Care Spending Accounts

Bill Steele, 

It sounds like you are asking about an HSA (Health Savings Account), not an FSA (Flexible Spending Account). I have used both and now use an HSA. An FSA has the advantages mentioned above including seamless payment of copays and deductibles. An HSA, as you mentioned, issues you a debit card to pay coinsurance and deductibles from your account. An HSA typically has superior tax advantages to an FSA whether use your insurance a lot or very little. But with those advantages come more work and recordkeeping. 

Tom

On Wed, Nov 25, 2020 at 4:09 PM MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

I used it for years (before I retired). It was great. You decide how much you want to deduct from your paycheck automatically. When the Insurrance company posts the EOB statement you get reimbursed from FSA. There are some medical items like glasses, and dental, some medical supplies or equipment that you can submit a receipt on the website to be reimbursed. Anything you add to your FSA is deducted from pay and it is then tax exempt but since this reduces your annual pay it doesn't count towards your SS earnings either. 

Richard

On Nov 25, 2020, at 2:24 PM, bill_steele_sr via groups.io <bill_steele_sr=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I got an email about enrolling in FSAFEDS. I use quite a few services and monthly medications. The information on the website raised more questions for me than it answered, and the contact phone number is for members only.

In the past I thought that a person who had one of these spending accounts put money into an account from their paychecks, was issued a debit card type payment card, and used that when paying for services- with the money deducted via the debit card. But every page of the information website discusses "Claim Forms" and "Supporting Documentation".

So are the millions of people who have these plans required to spend their time filling out claim forms every time they pick up a prescription or visit a doctor?

Thanks!!!

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Off Topic: Health Care Spending Accounts

Before I retired, I participated in FSAFEDS for many years and it worked very well for us.  There is no debit card - just an electronic account that deposits money in your bank account.  For doctors visits and such, there is no paperwork to fill out at all - your FEHB insurance company does that part.  If you need to do over the counter med related things, then you have to fill out paperwork - not to much of a big deal.  But the doctors appointments and such by themselves maxed me out anyhow.  So the benefit, for those wondering is, your money that you spend on healthcare comes out tax-free - a couple thousand dollars worth, max.  The downside, if you don't spend all the amount you allocated, you lose some of it at the end of the year.  Hope that helps?

Bruce

On 11/25/2020 2:24 PM, bill_steele_sr via groups.io wrote:

I got an email about enrolling in FSAFEDS. I use quite a few services and monthly medications. The information on the website raised more questions for me than it answered, and the contact phone number is for members only.

In the past I thought that a person who had one of these spending accounts put money into an account from their paychecks, was issued a debit card type payment card, and used that when paying for services- with the money deducted via the debit card. But every page of the information website discusses "Claim Forms" and "Supporting Documentation".

So are the millions of people who have these plans required to spend their time filling out claim forms every time they pick up a prescription or visit a doctor?

Thanks!!!

---

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Off Topic: Health Care Spending Accounts

I used it for years (before I retired). It was great. You decide how much you want to deduct from your paycheck automatically. When the Insurrance company posts the EOB statement you get reimbursed from FSA. There are some medical items like glasses, and dental, some medical supplies or equipment that you can submit a receipt on the website to be reimbursed. Anything you add to your FSA is deducted from pay and it is then tax exempt but since this reduces your annual pay it doesn't count towards your SS earnings either. 

Richard

On Nov 25, 2020, at 2:24 PM, bill_steele_sr via groups.io <bill_steele_sr=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I got an email about enrolling in FSAFEDS. I use quite a few services and monthly medications. The information on the website raised more questions for me than it answered, and the contact phone number is for members only.

In the past I thought that a person who had one of these spending accounts put money into an account from their paychecks, was issued a debit card type payment card, and used that when paying for services- with the money deducted via the debit card. But every page of the information website discusses "Claim Forms" and "Supporting Documentation".

So are the millions of people who have these plans required to spend their time filling out claim forms every time they pick up a prescription or visit a doctor?

Thanks!!!

Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

See attached screenshot with expense ratios for ARK ETFs. Source: https://www.etf.com/channels/ark-etfs

On Wed, Nov 25, 2020, 2:31 PM Mike Sall via groups.io <standards1022=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

ARKG is a new shiny object for me.  Any idea what the expense ratio's run for ARK ETF's?

Thank You, WMS

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Off Topic: Health Care Spending Accounts

I've enrolled for years now, and rarely submit forms any major re - everything is nearly "automatic" once you set things up online.

On Nov 25, 2020, at 2:24 PM, bill_steele_sr via groups.io <bill_steele_sr=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

I got an email about enrolling in FSAFEDS. I use quite a few services and monthly medications. The information on the website raised more questions for me than it answered, and the contact phone number is for members only.

In the past I thought that a person who had one of these spending accounts put money into an account from their paychecks, was issued a debit card type payment card, and used that when paying for services- with the money deducted via the debit card. But every page of the information website discusses "Claim Forms" and "Supporting Documentation".

So are the millions of people who have these plans required to spend their time filling out claim forms every time they pick up a prescription or visit a doctor?

Thanks!!!

Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

ARKG is a new shiny object for me.  Any idea what the expense ratio's run for ARK ETF's?

Thank You, WMS

[TSPStrategy] Off Topic: Health Care Spending Accounts

I got an email about enrolling in FSAFEDS. I use quite a few services and monthly medications. The information on the website raised more questions for me than it answered, and the contact phone number is for members only.

In the past I thought that a person who had one of these spending accounts put money into an account from their paychecks, was issued a debit card type payment card, and used that when paying for services- with the money deducted via the debit card. But every page of the information website discusses "Claim Forms" and "Supporting Documentation".

So are the millions of people who have these plans required to spend their time filling out claim forms every time they pick up a prescription or visit a doctor?

Thanks!!!

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

It gives me confidence 

I had "butterflies and a funny feeling" from December thru February 2029-2020 that I ignored so I got caught in that black swan V

I took a vacation to visit daughter who lives 6 time zones away and missed another downdraft

I _could_ have done 100% G for a short time then back to S

If the slopes start rolling over to negatives and bollinger bands look bad and mov Avgs roll over I will probably vacillate then also and wait too long

I just look at the 15 year graphs with their upward slopes

Things may be looking "frothy" as steep slopes don't seem sustained but we shall see

I hope this isn't too opaque 

On Nov 24, 2020, at 12:36 PM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

So if you are basically buy and hold for the TSP (nothing wrong with that) if you are long, then why bother to track and plot the MA's or the Bollinger bands? 

Richard

On Nov 24, 2020, at 8:39 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

No, I don't trade, that way is madness and very extreme losses, like 100% at times

It takes years to recover if ever

I have 1/2  my liquid wealth in TSP and 1/2 in market

_plus_ you can only trade _twice_ a month in TSP.

A 3rd time if you go to G fund

This can and will cause you to miss up days and lose big gains for tiny gains

I learned that in 35+ years in the markets.

I tried to be smart

I bought and sold 100% of CSCO, MSFT, AMER (which became AOL), CORL, DELL, IOM, GOOG, bunch of others. (If only I had kept 50%)

Many of those above split, and split. Some close to 300 shares for 1 share.

My MSFT would be worth $30,000+ per share for example, instead I made a tiny profit instead of a few millions by being slow and steady

There are computers with nanosecond responses on very short fiber connections using speed of light delays to trade faster than you could imagine and algorithms by way smarter kids

I use whiz kids that I follow to screen stocks for me. 

(I have found ARK to be an excellent source of info and they have ETF's I own a bunch of)

If you haven't I would suggest following them to gain knowledge 

I _love_ TSP as it has low costs, 

I invested in it for ~10 years prior to retirement and have had very "tasty" returns and piled as much cash into it as allowed, maxing out every year also with maxing out catchup

We are comfortable 

We also paid off mortgages, credit cards, cars, all debt 

I got seriously burnt trying to time markets but closely monitor them

I use 10, 20, 50 day mov averages 

I use a crossover of them

I use Bollinger bands with 20 day averages as raw data and 20 day avg tend to "hug" the +/- 2SD bands and "charge across" to hug other band at times.

(As an aside, I bought Tesla 10 years ago and Enphase and accumulated them slowly using DCA and other renewables as I see electrification of the planet and move away from fossil fuels as inevitable as it is cheaper. I run my entire house, pool heater and car on _free_ sunshine, took 20 years to do but doable) 

both use renewable energy and _free_ sunshine

I see electrical generation becoming like cell phones and internet 

Distributed everywhere, decentralized with storage and large power plants pretty much vanishing with microgrids aggregated as necessary as replacements, others seem to see this also

I'm not sure if this belongs on TSP discussion but I tend to ramble, so hope this not too wordy.

On Nov 24, 2020, at 7:34 AM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Winfield100 do you sell the S when it crosses below the 20 day MA and buy it when crossing above it?

On Nov 24, 2020, at 6:56 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



15 years of 20 day moving average (1 trading month) of 4 funds, S, C, I, F

(this data is _free_ you can do this too)

It turned up about 11 years ago, there was a "black swan" in Feb 2020 that _temporarily_ killed me, but I recovered

, otherwise, i have been 100% in S for a very long time

I also graph this stuff daily, it's my day job now i've been retired 4 years

I monitor slopes, trends, etc to "see" and "get the feel" of what others are thinking

_you_ can too

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, 02:55:09 AM EST, Scott N <scottnieto@gmail.com> wrote:

If you leave your money in S and C it will double.

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions?

Oh my gosh, Scott, I hope you are right! :)

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions?

Thanks for the reply, Richard.  I'd like to stay the course for now... I'm going to see how I feel in 10 years whether I want to keep working or not. 

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

Catherine Wood Is a stock picking genius. 

Carlos Miranda

Mirandarts@gmail.com

On Nov 24, 2020, at 5:03 PM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



ARK Invest | We Believe Innovation Is Key to Growth

ARK Invest | We Believe Innovation Is Key to Growth ARK Invest focuses solely on disruptive innovation and offers investment solutions to investors seeking long-ter...

 i own a bunch of the etf's otherwise

On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, 01:27:35 PM EST, Bill Holzworth <holzworth.bill@gmail.com> wrote:

Can you give me the site for Ark?

Thx

On Tue, Nov 24, 2020 at 12:36 PM MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

So if you are basically buy and hold for the TSP (nothing wrong with that) if you are long, then why bother to track and plot the MA's or the Bollinger bands? 

Richard

On Nov 24, 2020, at 8:39 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

No, I don't trade, that way is madness and very extreme losses, like 100% at times

It takes years to recover if ever

I have 1/2  my liquid wealth in TSP and 1/2 in market

_plus_ you can only trade _twice_ a month in TSP.

A 3rd time if you go to G fund

This can and will cause you to miss up days and lose big gains for tiny gains

I learned that in 35+ years in the markets.

I tried to be smart

I bought and sold 100% of CSCO, MSFT, AMER (which became AOL), CORL, DELL, IOM, GOOG, bunch of others. (If only I had kept 50%)

Many of those above split, and split. Some close to 300 shares for 1 share.

My MSFT would be worth $30,000+ per share for example, instead I made a tiny profit instead of a few millions by being slow and steady

There are computers with nanosecond responses on very short fiber connections using speed of light delays to trade faster than you could imagine and algorithms by way smarter kids

I use whiz kids that I follow to screen stocks for me. 

(I have found ARK to be an excellent source of info and they have ETF's I own a bunch of)

If you haven't I would suggest following them to gain knowledge 

I _love_ TSP as it has low costs, 

I invested in it for ~10 years prior to retirement and have had very "tasty" returns and piled as much cash into it as allowed, maxing out every year also with maxing out catchup

We are comfortable 

We also paid off mortgages, credit cards, cars, all debt 

I got seriously burnt trying to time markets but closely monitor them

I use 10, 20, 50 day mov averages 

I use a crossover of them

I use Bollinger bands with 20 day averages as raw data and 20 day avg tend to "hug" the +/- 2SD bands and "charge across" to hug other band at times.

(As an aside, I bought Tesla 10 years ago and Enphase and accumulated them slowly using DCA and other renewables as I see electrification of the planet and move away from fossil fuels as inevitable as it is cheaper. I run my entire house, pool heater and car on _free_ sunshine, took 20 years to do but doable) 

both use renewable energy and _free_ sunshine

I see electrical generation becoming like cell phones and internet 

Distributed everywhere, decentralized with storage and large power plants pretty much vanishing with microgrids aggregated as necessary as replacements, others seem to see this also

I'm not sure if this belongs on TSP discussion but I tend to ramble, so hope this not too wordy.

On Nov 24, 2020, at 7:34 AM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Winfield100 do you sell the S when it crosses below the 20 day MA and buy it when crossing above it?

On Nov 24, 2020, at 6:56 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



15 years of 20 day moving average (1 trading month) of 4 funds, S, C, I, F

(this data is _free_ you can do this too)

It turned up about 11 years ago, there was a "black swan" in Feb 2020 that _temporarily_ killed me, but I recovered

, otherwise, i have been 100% in S for a very long time

I also graph this stuff daily, it's my day job now i've been retired 4 years

I monitor slopes, trends, etc to "see" and "get the feel" of what others are thinking

_you_ can too

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, 02:55:09 AM EST, Scott N <scottnieto@gmail.com> wrote:

If you leave your money in S and C it will double.

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

[TSPStrategy] new membership approval

Have a friend that wants to join the group.  Who approves requests to join?  thanks.

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View/Reply Online (#1866) | Reply To Group | Reply To Sender | Mute This Topic | New Topic
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Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

ARK Invest | We Believe Innovation Is Key to Growth

ARK Invest | We Believe Innovation Is Key to Growth ARK Invest focuses solely on disruptive innovation and offers investment solutions to investors seeking long-ter...

 i own a bunch of the etf's otherwise

On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, 01:27:35 PM EST, Bill Holzworth <holzworth.bill@gmail.com> wrote:

Can you give me the site for Ark?

Thx

On Tue, Nov 24, 2020 at 12:36 PM MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

So if you are basically buy and hold for the TSP (nothing wrong with that) if you are long, then why bother to track and plot the MA's or the Bollinger bands? 

Richard

On Nov 24, 2020, at 8:39 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

No, I don't trade, that way is madness and very extreme losses, like 100% at times

It takes years to recover if ever

I have 1/2  my liquid wealth in TSP and 1/2 in market

_plus_ you can only trade _twice_ a month in TSP.

A 3rd time if you go to G fund

This can and will cause you to miss up days and lose big gains for tiny gains

I learned that in 35+ years in the markets.

I tried to be smart

I bought and sold 100% of CSCO, MSFT, AMER (which became AOL), CORL, DELL, IOM, GOOG, bunch of others. (If only I had kept 50%)

Many of those above split, and split. Some close to 300 shares for 1 share.

My MSFT would be worth $30,000+ per share for example, instead I made a tiny profit instead of a few millions by being slow and steady

There are computers with nanosecond responses on very short fiber connections using speed of light delays to trade faster than you could imagine and algorithms by way smarter kids

I use whiz kids that I follow to screen stocks for me. 

(I have found ARK to be an excellent source of info and they have ETF's I own a bunch of)

If you haven't I would suggest following them to gain knowledge 

I _love_ TSP as it has low costs, 

I invested in it for ~10 years prior to retirement and have had very "tasty" returns and piled as much cash into it as allowed, maxing out every year also with maxing out catchup

We are comfortable 

We also paid off mortgages, credit cards, cars, all debt 

I got seriously burnt trying to time markets but closely monitor them

I use 10, 20, 50 day mov averages 

I use a crossover of them

I use Bollinger bands with 20 day averages as raw data and 20 day avg tend to "hug" the +/- 2SD bands and "charge across" to hug other band at times.

(As an aside, I bought Tesla 10 years ago and Enphase and accumulated them slowly using DCA and other renewables as I see electrification of the planet and move away from fossil fuels as inevitable as it is cheaper. I run my entire house, pool heater and car on _free_ sunshine, took 20 years to do but doable) 

both use renewable energy and _free_ sunshine

I see electrical generation becoming like cell phones and internet 

Distributed everywhere, decentralized with storage and large power plants pretty much vanishing with microgrids aggregated as necessary as replacements, others seem to see this also

I'm not sure if this belongs on TSP discussion but I tend to ramble, so hope this not too wordy.

On Nov 24, 2020, at 7:34 AM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Winfield100 do you sell the S when it crosses below the 20 day MA and buy it when crossing above it?

On Nov 24, 2020, at 6:56 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



15 years of 20 day moving average (1 trading month) of 4 funds, S, C, I, F

(this data is _free_ you can do this too)

It turned up about 11 years ago, there was a "black swan" in Feb 2020 that _temporarily_ killed me, but I recovered

, otherwise, i have been 100% in S for a very long time

I also graph this stuff daily, it's my day job now i've been retired 4 years

I monitor slopes, trends, etc to "see" and "get the feel" of what others are thinking

_you_ can too

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, 02:55:09 AM EST, Scott N <scottnieto@gmail.com> wrote:

If you leave your money in S and C it will double.

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

Re: [TSPStrategy] Next Decade Predictions and 15 year graph

Can you give me the site for Ark?

Thx

On Tue, Nov 24, 2020 at 12:36 PM MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:

So if you are basically buy and hold for the TSP (nothing wrong with that) if you are long, then why bother to track and plot the MA's or the Bollinger bands? 

Richard

On Nov 24, 2020, at 8:39 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

No, I don't trade, that way is madness and very extreme losses, like 100% at times

It takes years to recover if ever

I have 1/2  my liquid wealth in TSP and 1/2 in market

_plus_ you can only trade _twice_ a month in TSP.

A 3rd time if you go to G fund

This can and will cause you to miss up days and lose big gains for tiny gains

I learned that in 35+ years in the markets.

I tried to be smart

I bought and sold 100% of CSCO, MSFT, AMER (which became AOL), CORL, DELL, IOM, GOOG, bunch of others. (If only I had kept 50%)

Many of those above split, and split. Some close to 300 shares for 1 share.

My MSFT would be worth $30,000+ per share for example, instead I made a tiny profit instead of a few millions by being slow and steady

There are computers with nanosecond responses on very short fiber connections using speed of light delays to trade faster than you could imagine and algorithms by way smarter kids

I use whiz kids that I follow to screen stocks for me. 

(I have found ARK to be an excellent source of info and they have ETF's I own a bunch of)

If you haven't I would suggest following them to gain knowledge 

I _love_ TSP as it has low costs, 

I invested in it for ~10 years prior to retirement and have had very "tasty" returns and piled as much cash into it as allowed, maxing out every year also with maxing out catchup

We are comfortable 

We also paid off mortgages, credit cards, cars, all debt 

I got seriously burnt trying to time markets but closely monitor them

I use 10, 20, 50 day mov averages 

I use a crossover of them

I use Bollinger bands with 20 day averages as raw data and 20 day avg tend to "hug" the +/- 2SD bands and "charge across" to hug other band at times.

(As an aside, I bought Tesla 10 years ago and Enphase and accumulated them slowly using DCA and other renewables as I see electrification of the planet and move away from fossil fuels as inevitable as it is cheaper. I run my entire house, pool heater and car on _free_ sunshine, took 20 years to do but doable) 

both use renewable energy and _free_ sunshine

I see electrical generation becoming like cell phones and internet 

Distributed everywhere, decentralized with storage and large power plants pretty much vanishing with microgrids aggregated as necessary as replacements, others seem to see this also

I'm not sure if this belongs on TSP discussion but I tend to ramble, so hope this not too wordy.

On Nov 24, 2020, at 7:34 AM, MD2018 via groups.io <rlkane.wc=verizon.net@groups.io> wrote:



Winfield100 do you sell the S when it crosses below the 20 day MA and buy it when crossing above it?

On Nov 24, 2020, at 6:56 AM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



15 years of 20 day moving average (1 trading month) of 4 funds, S, C, I, F

(this data is _free_ you can do this too)

It turned up about 11 years ago, there was a "black swan" in Feb 2020 that _temporarily_ killed me, but I recovered

, otherwise, i have been 100% in S for a very long time

I also graph this stuff daily, it's my day job now i've been retired 4 years

I monitor slopes, trends, etc to "see" and "get the feel" of what others are thinking

_you_ can too

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

On Tuesday, November 24, 2020, 02:55:09 AM EST, Scott N <scottnieto@gmail.com> wrote:

If you leave your money in S and C it will double.

<1606218608489blob.jpg>

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You receive all messages sent to this group.

View/Reply Online (#1864) | Reply To Group | Reply To Sender | Mute This Topic | New Topic
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