This is incredibly similar advice to what my old man gave me when I started. I use the 100 day moving average to make moves. I'm comfortable with the time I have left in the govt and the C funds history to be in 100%...for now. But it all comes done to an individual's knowledge and comfort level.
--------------------------------------------
On Wed, 7/19/17, robert winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: I fund?
To: "TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Wednesday, July 19, 2017, 3:40 PM
I
have been asked by a number and my answer may disappoint
some but my system is both simple and complex.1) I
listen to Sarah and she is much more educated in the ins and
outs of investing2)
Sarah appears to say if i read her correctly 100% this fund
or that fund3)
remember, over 4 years you can move a maximum of 48 times,
in ~999 trading days, have a validated reason, and wait and
revalidate the reason4)
look at this incredibly powerful tool we have FOR
FREETSP Charts &
Returns - Thrift Savings Plan
TSP Charts & Returns - Thrift Savings
Plan TSP Center is the premier
resource for government employees and military personnel
participating in the TSP Thri...
5)
go to the above site, select moving averages, select in the
"from calendar" as close to 999 days ago, almost 4
yearsNote:
you get a chart like thisFund
Returns (Chart Range: Jul 17, 2013 - Jul 17,
2017)L
2050L
2040L
2030L
2020L
2010L
IncomeG
FundF
FundC
FundS
FundI
Fund+41.37%+37.81%+33.70%+26.45%-+16.77%+8.75%+14.14%+59.50%+49.26%+25.65%
6)select
20,50,200 day moving averages. Look at the F fund (disaster)
C, S, I funds all have positive slopes, note the C fund is
best.7)
Is the moving average of the 20 day above the moving average
of the 50 day and that above the 200 day.8)
note you can download that entire data set into an excel
spreadsheet.9)
In the spreadsheet, in progress and i'm tweaking it, you
can add another 24 columns to make 20,50,200 day moving
averages for each, a logical If 20>50>200 for each and
assign a 0 or +1 if it meets the criteria, sum the logical
statements, and it may be too much work for too little
return10)
Or you can just look at the graphs above created in seconds
by their software and train your eyes to look at the graphs,
(is 20>50>200, how steep is the slope, is it rolling
over slowing down what?)11)
do the moving averages for roughly a 3-4 month period, do it
for a 2 month period. Does it give your eyes the same
answer? this takes 10-15 minutes at most using
tspcenter.12)
consider again Sarah gives us really really good FREE
advice, FREE13)
If you get really lazy, look at the L 2050, which is a mix
of G,F,C,S,I that they can rebalance daily, ~22 times per
month vs your 2 times per month, again FREE14)
I realize this may not be the answer you wanted, but
it's free, sarah's work and advice is free, and if
you go alone, you are fighting 10's of thousands of
people and computer programs that are way faster, more
knowledgable, and life is short and to be enjoyed15)
an explanation of the 8% remark. read the mike causey column
and note, only what % have between what %16)
Sarah's is free, mine is work and gets pretty much the
same return, so i recovered my free time to watch birds,
swim, boat, enjoy retirement17)
but also note, over that 4 year period the L2020 did 3x
better than the G, the L2050 did 5x+ better than the G the C
did 7x better than the G. If you are parking your money,
dont use the G18)
play on the above site with the moving averages, put in
different time periods, they dont all have to end with
today. they could be the last 3 months of 2016 and first 3
months of 201719)
you have an incredibly powerful tool, free use it20)
I may be a "horses ass" but i dont need my TSP
until I hit 70.5 and am required to do so21)
aloha, mahalo
From: "Vince
Chamberlain vincechamberlain@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]"
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To:
TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, July
19, 2017 1:58 PM
Subject: Re:
[TSP_Strategy] Re: I fund?
I
concur
--------------------------------------------
On Wed, 7/19/17, Nathan Lee leefamilyusa7@yahoo.com
[TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
wrote:
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: I fund?
To: "TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com"
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
Date: Wednesday, July 19, 2017, 1:28 PM
....dont' leave. your
input is appreciated.
Nathan
Lee435-830-0665leefamilyusa7@yahoo.com
From: "robert
winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]"
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To:
"TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com"
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday,
July 18, 2017 3:27 PM
Subject: Re:
[TSP_Strategy] Re: I fund?
why
thank you for your observation. I may be a "horses
ass", but a horses ass in the top 8% of the
TSP
I
provided free of charge an extremely simple system that
will
allow you to decide
the answer to your question "should I move my TSP
from
this fund to that fund" that removes emotion, that
others charge $150+/year. If you are ten years from
retirement, you have about 1,500 days to make sucessful
investments and a maximum of _less_ than 250 potential
trades to secure all your TSP retirement funds..
And
I both follow Sarah, and also thank her for her unpaid
work
here.If
you wish me to leave, I will acceed to the groups
wishesIf
you wish false modesty and fake humility, look
elsewherehappy
investingrobertr From:
"borderpatrol_dude@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]"
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
Tquoestio:
TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesnday, July
18, 2017 1:38 PM
Subject: Re:
[TSP_Strategy] Re: I fund?
Robert,
you're just a horses ass. When you call people timid
and
berate them, plan on getting something back in your
face.
Take your million dollar club and enjoy it alone because
nobody sticks around people like you unless they are
using
you for your money. Learn a bit of humility.
On
Jul 18, 2017 9:11 AM, "robert winfield
winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]"
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Until
you are literally a member of the $1 million club,
don't
insult me
Sent
from Yahoo Mail on Android
Wow,
someone forgot their Abilify this morning. If you
would
like to say I'm wrong, then spit it out. If you
would
like to tell me not to post my personal opinions, then
spit
it out.I agree 100% moves are mathematically the
best option. Unfortunately my confidence level and
risk
acceptance is not at this point in the market cycle.
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