Jim,
For a long time, I had maintained my view that the "Bear Market" started in the year 2000 (SPX peak at 1553) may not have been completed yet based on a long term valuation cycle theory. Although the current market peak of SPX: 2135 in May 2015 is well above the peak of 2007 (SPX: 1565), in a real value of money sense (with inflation of 2.2% annual), the SPX has to move beyond 2200 to make an even value for the SPX peak in year 2000. So unless the SPX break up the overhead resistance and move beyond 2121 and then a new high in a near term, the last phase of bear cycle still can not be ruled out yet and if this view is correct, then the final bottom could happen within a year. Regardless of whether this view is correct or not, the current market conditions seem to be a topping phase and it could end at any time. So preserving your capital during uncertain time should be your highest priority in my opinion. The eighth year presidential cycle is not like a typical presidential election year due to too much uncertainties lie ahead. So if the market sustain the down turn, then it could be very nasty and I'd rather be safe then sorry during this time. Good luck!
On Tue, Jul 5, 2016 at 10:40 AM, JM Bud jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Thanks, Paul. I agree this is a "time for a caution not a bravery."I've posted before I use closing prices in comparison with the the slope and direction of 50 and 200 day moving averages (MAs) to help me decide which 3 to 5 TSP Funds to hold in my portfolio and make adjustments a few times per year or more often as needed. TSP Center provides an easy to use tool for that. The subject article identified a very simple version of that approach that seems to work well in less volatile times.But the chart you attached illustrates the different period we are in. After several years of steadily rising US equities, 2015 and 2016 have been nothing but sideways movements with some breathtaking drops and agonizing recoveries. We are close, but still are not back up to May 2015 highs. Prices can drop through MAs in a matter of days. So trend lines like the one your chart shows offer helpful advance warnings.It's true that C and S are up about 7% and 9% since many in TSP Strategy moved to F on 8 March. And those who remained largely in the market since then have been attentive and brave or just lucky. But, a 3.5% gain by F might look good in comparison if (when?) US equities take another "unexpected" hit. A defensive portfolio probably makes sense now.Paul, do you to see anything settling down before the US elections in November, or are you just looking to capture short term gains off the next and subsequent trade-able bottoms, regardless of what causes them?JimOn Tue, Jul 5, 2016 at 9:39 AM, Paul ur12bfriend@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:[Attachment(s) from Paul included below]Folks, take a look at the attached chart and make your own interpretation, but I think it's time for a caution not a bravery!I'm staying in 100% F until the market finds a tradable bottom. Good luck!On Sat, Jul 2, 2016 at 11:24 PM, romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:[Attachment(s) from romansmr2@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] included below]Here is a simple spreadsheet I created.
Newer version of excel you can create the chart with the moving average.You can also go to TSP Charts & Returns - Thrift Savings Plan page to get 10/20/50/100/200 day moving averages on S, C, I Funds. I was doing research on this topic and this page came close for being an automated free site if you don't want to keep up a excel file. I am not a member and do not endorse this website.
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Posted by: Paul <ur12bfriend@gmail.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.
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