I agree. While the prevailing wisdom of the group has always been to not try to time the market, and that strategy is ultimately the surest path to success over time; I've had some success jumping out when I thought the markets might go down.
I think I picked up about 2-3% since the beginning of the year.
That gain was wiped away with my brexit move but that was a great learning experience. Easy to see in hindsight, that week the markets had already moved up as much as they were going to based on the positive polling. I stayed in S and took the hit. Then I read lots of gloom and doom stories suggesting this was the beginning of a big decline. I had already used one move but it was near enough the end of the month, I figured markets would continue to decline so I jumped to G and was stuck there until 1 July.
Ultimately I locked in a 2% loss.
But looking back I just played it wrong, the exit vote was sure to hit markets hard but a remain vote would have only brought about a slight increase as things were already trending up. The odds being near 50/50, being in the G the day before would have been the logical move.
Looking forward to the election, one outcome will have a bigger negative effect on the markets than another, if polling is close in the final days then being in G on election night might be a good move.
Back in 2008 I had just started in the TSP. We were loading it up with a plan to borrow it back to fund an adoption. I had less than $20K when I heard smart people on the radio say the adjustable rate mortgage crisis was going to hit the markets hard. I moved to G and stayed there. Worked out well. Some time after 2009 I heard the same people say we had hit bottom and I moved back.
Then I embraced this group and for the next few years I only moved funds when the Great oracle suggested it. But in the last six months I've started to see the value in looking at world events and making my own occasional detours. Seems to be working.
And it's more fun.
-----Original Message-----
From: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com [mailto:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Thursday, July 14, 2016 7:58 AM
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Non-DoD Source] Re: [TSP_Strategy] C Fund - New All Time High
Scotty, on May 26th you critiqued my method of occasionally moving in or out of the market by "gut feel"; I replied that my balance was proof that it's worked for me more times than not.
Of course the gains always come back, it's the length of *time* that it takes to get back to pre-correction levels that I'm trying to minimize. We've all got to do what we're comfortable with, so if buy-and-hold works best for *you,* keep doing it. Wishing us all happy investing.
Posted by: "Silva, David J CIV" <David.J.Silva@uscg.mil>
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