where was the prediction about the precipitous drop that started in December 2015? Whoever called that one and got out is a person I would listen to in the future.
First of all, I am not that person but I do think this forum has the collective potential to provide this analysis. On my 8 Jan post I said I wouldn't come back in until oil stabilized or decoupled from stock pricing (it now seems to have done a little of both). Since then, I eased back into the market becoming 70% G and now I am all in – perhaps temporary for the near term as negative market sentiment has turned substantially more positive this week – talk of recession is lower and today's issue of Barron's is somewhat optimistic compared with the tone of the last eight weeks (bear market rally or bull market continued? - Dimitra DeFotis on emerging markets in today's page M7).
I enjoy the community of this forum. I began following here in November out of a desire to better inform myself about the TSP. As a military member, I've been in TSP since 2004. I was the typical uninformed G fund investor as demands from deployments, training, and assignments kept me from becoming the student of the market that I should have been. But I continued to contribute to the TSP and around 2011, I moved into the L2040 but remained essentially uninformed about its composition – it was still an area of my life I just didn't make time for.
Fast forward to Fall 2015 – Congress overhauled the military retirement system creating a 401K/Federal TSP like component to begin in 2017 (it reduces the traditional pension from 50% to 40% and provides matching funds in TSP). This was passed with wording that more investing education would be provided to service members so they could manage their funds. What this training will be remains to be seen. Although not personally affected, I decided in order to be an adaptive leader I needed to understand TSP better to explain these benefits to junior leaders and soldiers alike.
So, I changed and I now make time to inform myself and learn. I wish I had done so much earlier! In addition to this forum, I draw significant input from Barron's, the Smart TSP Investor website, and CNBC although I now take some of what Cramer says with a grain of salt - I am also a Suzy Orman fan. I have learned stock analysts favor friends and associates in the companies they follow over providing the unvarnished truth to investors. I have learned brokers that employ analysts also understate risk lest they rock the Wall Street boat and risk the stream of investor cash inflows every month.
I have identified others whose opinions I find reliable, and as Sarah recently discussed, I am beginning to develop an appreciation for the market's intrinsic rhythms – my goal now is to reduce risk at the appropriate times and increase it when the all clear signals seem to appear. In the military profession, risk is managed continuously in order to accomplish the mission and I see this no differently. For this reason, I will try to find time when I can to provide input to this forum whenever I have something to say and always look forward to reading yours.
Cheers - Eric.
Posted by: mil.flyer@yahoo.com
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