Jim – I said I would get back to you and here are my thoughts. The problem with the S Fund as represented by the DWCPF chart is it now portrays a classic head and shoulders formation beginning in late 2014 and extending all the way through 2015 and into this year. It closed today at 856 which represents about a 125 point drop to today's close (as measured from the right shoulder) – the next significant level of support level is 700. Oil was down 4.21% closing at $28.44 today. The consensus is oil will go lower for a variety of economic and geo-political reasons and the seeming disintegration of OPEC unity. Yeah, the market overall seems to be going lower.
So what to do? I don't think there is a wrong answer at this point. My wife intends to hold her stocks from here - I practically begged her to sell when I went to G Fund. She wishes she did but now believes they will come back up – and they will. Will it take long? I believe so. Which is why I am in the G and F now. If I was in the other funds right now, I think I would get out and re-enter when oil capitulates. Like an alligator taking its prey, oil has the market in a death roll right now and won't let go until crude oil goes lower (low 20s or even teens for a barrel). I will be watching for oil to either decouple from stocks or form a bottom - I think this bottom will be pronounced and visible due to the amount of the surplus.
- Eric
--------------------------------------------
On Tue, 2/9/16, JM Bud jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Capitulation?
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Date: Tuesday, February 9, 2016, 12:23 PM
You made a good move to exit
equities completely when you did, Eric. I'm still
holding 25% in the C Fund.
It takes a lot of courage to buy and
hold S for the long term and NOT lock in a 15% or 20% loss
at this point. I thought Sarah said in a previous post that
DWCPF might have another base around 700 if one doesn't
form here. Sure, it will take a long time to recover, but
eventually it will.
Recall
that for the year of 2008 S Fund annual return was -38%. But
it rebounded to +35% for 2009 and another +29% in 2010
before slipping 3% in 2011. It took nearly 4 years of that
kind of "excitement" to catch up to the returns of
the G Fund over the same period! Is that what's in store
again?
Jim
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Posted by: Eric <mil.flyer@yahoo.com>
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