Re: [TSP_Strategy] My version of Zweig Model

 

Tex--your contributions are worth their weight in great returns my friend and always proffered with such politeness and clarity---brains, good manners and great writing--rare qualities these days! You are a welcome breath of fresh air herein!

I'm a fan and have been for some time!
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On Sat, 12/19/15, mrweyl@hotmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

Subject: [TSP_Strategy] My version of Zweig Model
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Date: Saturday, December 19, 2015, 10:24 AM


 









With the increase in the discount rate from 0.75%
to 1.00% and with the ongoing bearish technical indicator
(my own, not Zweig's), my version of the Zweig stock
investment model has entered neutral territory. I have not
implemented any changes in my current TSP allocation (100%
S) for approximately 3+ years and the last time only for a
very short term trade (that lost a small amount of
money).

I am not happy with
the prospect of moving money into the F fund, since I have
long (and wrongly) expected mid- to long-term interest rates
to increase significantly at some point. I expect the G fund
returns to increase, at least over the short term in
response to the discount and funds rate increases on
Wednesday.

The F Fund is
invested in the mid- to long-term bond category, and
therefore could decrease in value if those interest rates
(say rates on 5-year Treasury Bonds/Notes) increase.
Ordinarily one would expect that to happen, but at present
the prices of commodities have been significantly lower and
the value of the dollar significantly higher. So if the Fed
raises rates too quickly, the economy could decline and
longer term interest rates would decline, increasing the
value of the F Fund.

Summarizing, the G fund remains a sure bet, but
the returns are relatively low. The F Fund could go either
way, and stocks are probably "flat" but vulnerable
to future Fed decisions. Thus stocks appear to be riskier
than they were around December, 2014.

So I do not expect to make a log of money in
stocks over the next several months or longer and the
current plan of the Fed for 2016 augers for a decline in
stock prices. If I move money out of stocks, I will post the
changes, for what it is worth.

Good luck and happy holidays.
Tex











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