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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

I apologize for breaking into this thread. I didn't want to start a new one and I couldn't find one that asked "Where are we now" Still S Fund? 


I was on travel fixing some equipment and I was too tired to check my email--maybe that was a good thing!


I'm glad I didn't jump and stuck with your advice!!

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Posted by: sticksandstones66@yahoo.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Fixed Income Sector Performance

[TSP_Strategy] Fixed Income Sector Performance

 

Fixed Income Sector Performance (Total Return as of 12/31/15)

Chart of the Week for January 29, 2016 - February 4, 2016

Fixed income sectors posted mixed returns in the twelve month period ended December 31, 2015 compared to the twelve month period ended December 31, 2014, during which all fixed income sectors generated positive returns.

The fixed income market includes many different types of securities, and their comparative performance can vary substantially. The chart above compares the performance of eleven major fixed income sectors for the one year periods ended December 31, 2015 ("current year") and December 31, 2014 ("prior year"). Six of the eleven sectors shown rose in the current year compared to all eleven sectors shown producing positive returns in the prior year.

Returns were lower in the current year compared to the prior year as interest rates were generally higher and uncertainty about U.S. monetary policy impacted fixed income markets. Shorter-term securities generally outperformed longer-term securities. The prior year's top performer, U.S. Long-Term Government, went from a positive 24.66% return to a negative 1.16% return. The leading positive sector in the current year was U.S. Municipal Bonds with a return of 3.30%, as the supply of new bonds being issued was less than the demand for those securities. 

High Yield Bonds posted negative returns in the current year after posting positive returns in the prior year, as concerns about falling oil prices and the impact on high yield fixed income issuers continued to impact the sector. 

Emerging Markets returns in U.S. dollars were positive in both years, as high yield debt issued by some Emerging Market countries, such as Russia, performed well in the current year. The Global fixed income sector went from positive in prior year to negative in the current year in U.S.dollar terms, as interest rates generally stayed low in countries around the world.


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Bottom testing is needed to determine whether a short term bottom is being set into place.
None yet.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Just as markets don't move straight up, they don't move straight down. That said, bear markets tend to be faster and more volatile than bull markets.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Thanks Sarah...This is the part I have had, and continue to have confusion over.

Don't want to ride the Bear to the bottom like last time...

And don't want to miss a significant rebound, should one occur.

Imagine if you got out now, the markets rebounded 8-12%, you then got back in, and the markets 
collapsed again, going even lower....


When I first retired, I talked with a financial consultant about the possibility of moving money out of tsp and into a managed investment fund.  Ultimately left the money in tsp, (a confused mind says "no")...But, one thing he told me, as we discussed where to move money within the tsp funds, was that missing just one or two "major' moves up in the market were very costly.  A few weeks back, someone else mentioned this, and while I can back test it, and it seems to hold true, it still is confusing. 

Just seems that though missing an initial big move up, one could get back in a point that still would be profitable...Given the difference between say 900 and 700 in the DWCPF...If I got out at 900 and back in around 800; wouldn't that still be a profitable, and asset preserving plan?  My biggest concern is your last statement "...you then got back in, and the markets collapsed again, going even lower".   That's what keeps me holding on...should be a song in there somewhere.  

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Posted by: inthepowerzone@hotmail.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Looks like DWCPF will close right around 910 again where it did last Friday. Bottom forming?

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Posted by: jmbud2@gmail.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Sarah..all good points.  I have a co-worker who pretty much panicked and move pretty much everything to G about a week and a half ago at the lowest point.  He kept a little in C and I, but most is in G.  He tells me he going to move back in when we reach a bottom, and I tell him to let me know when that is.  I bet he's just kicking himself right now but won't admit it.

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Posted by: scsi_guru@yahoo.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

 Just looking for a point to withdraw and preserve what I have...

Me, too.

Yes, should have done it at DWCPF 1005...Got greedy.  Should have done it at 925...was hoping for the historical DEC/JAN bump up.  Instead, for JAN the NASDAQ has suffered the biggest loss in the history of the Market; DOW/S&P third worst JAN in history...

Realizing that Januarys tend to be bullish; that when this bear hit, it was very fast and very dramatic; and that you can't trade your TSP with tremendous nimbleness; it is understandable that we got caught. Had we moved out, and the market moved higher, you'd be kicking yourself also.

We have many conflicting forces here. 

1. The markets were high. (bearish)
2. We are coming out of a recession. (bullish)
3. China is going into a recession (bearish)
4. Europe and Asia are coming out of recession (bullish)
5. US raised interest rates. (bullish)
6. Commodity prices crashing (bearish)

I believe that once the markets return to more reasonable prices, we'll be back into bullish mode.

C fund - 1500
S fund - 700
I fund - 50

Don't want to ride the Bear to the bottom like last time...

And don't want to miss a significant rebound, should one occur.

Imagine if you got out now, the markets rebounded 8-12%, you then got back in, and the markets
collapsed again, going even lower....

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

While I do have patience, I'm shorter term than most, already retired with eight to ten years before I start drawing from my TSP.  I'm not overly concerned with the Bear market ending anytime soon...I think it will continue for at least another year, probably longer.  Just looking for a point to withdraw and preserve what I have...Yes, should have done it at DWCPF 1005...Got greedy.  Should have done it at 925...was hoping for the historical DEC/JAN bump up.  Instead, for JAN the NASDAQ has suffered the biggest loss in the history of the Market; DOW/S&P third worst JAN in history...


Don't want to ride the Bear to the bottom like last time...We are currently around 900, most feel this is NOT the bottom...Of course, no one can predict where "exactly" the bottom will be.  That said, I believe it will be significantly lower, and it makes sense for me, to get out, preserve, and re-enter.  Obviously you can not "time" the market, especially with the restraints within our tsp; but, certainly somewhere between say 700 and 900, one could re-enter and maintain, or even gain a little moving forward?

Thanks Sarah, Paul and many others...You always give me plenty to research, and consider.


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Posted by: inthepowerzone@hotmail.com
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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

I think the first hurdle is just cleared by moving beyond 1920 range.  So I want to see SPX cracking the next resistance level around 1935, and then 1950. If it moves up beyond 1975, then I think it will move up to make a new high. Good luck folks!

Oh, btw Sarah, I'll cash in my gains from SVXY so I don't have to leave the position open over the weekend. If SPX struggles to crack the next resistance level during next week, I may try to position UVXY one more time.  Thanks for your tips! 

On Fri, Jan 29, 2016 at 12:23 PM, sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

Sarah - do you think we are basing, and looking more likely that we are trying to form a bottom to move up from here long term?

Unlikely, but too soon to tell.  IMHO, it would have to be a very large base to avoid a further downward move.


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Posted by: Paul <ur12bfriend@gmail.com>
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Early this morning, based on the BOJ approving negative interest rates, DOW futures were up almost 200 points/S&P up 42pts; I was looking for a nice bounce to make an exit...But, approaching the Noon deadline, it just has not materialized.  Guess I'll continue to hold, and hope...

While I realize that everyone is impatient for this bear market to end, it will, unfortunately, require significant patience. The markets were hit hard in January, and have essentially stabilized.  That's all.

There has been no significant bounce...yet.  The faster the bounce, the more likely it will not hold.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Sarah - do you think we are basing, and looking more likely that we are trying to form a bottom to move up from here long term?

Unlikely, but too soon to tell.  IMHO, it would have to be a very large base to avoid a further downward move.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Early this morning, based on the BOJ approving negative interest rates, DOW futures were up almost 200 points/S&P up 42pts; I was looking for a nice bounce to make an exit...But, approaching the Noon deadline, it just has not materialized.  Guess I'll continue to hold, and hope...

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Posted by: inthepowerzone@hotmail.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Margin Debt - Bear Market Indicator

 

Sarah - do you think we are basing, and looking more likely that we are trying to form a bottom to move up from here long term?

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Posted by: timedtrade@gmail.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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