Re: RE: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Seasonality of Bear Markets

 

Thanks for the very detailed and sensible response, Jim. Herminia Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android From:"JM Bud jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> Date:Mon, Aug 31, 2015 at 6:49 AM Subject:Re: RE: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Seasonality of Bear Markets   Hello, Herminia, You wrote,  "I just started my subscription with TSP Pilot. I have been retired since 2013 and just left all my TSP in G fund. Now I've decided to be a little bit more aggressive. How is your experience with TSP Pilot so far? I haven't followed it's advisory since I've subscribed in July." First, I hope you are enjoying your retirement. I think its great whenever anyone decides to take on more risk than 100% G, whether employed or retired. But, being in G for the past two years or so, you missed a nice increase in the markets. On the other, you didn't "lose" any money or sleep during the recent market fluctuations. I would think it takes a bit more courage to be an investor for life once you're retired and your contributions to the TSP Fund have stopped! Knowing when to step into this market from a former 100% G position is difficult and might be a risky move. You might want to watch for comments from others in the TSP Strategy group who moved fully into G a few weeks ago just before the last turmoil. If they share when and why they are moving back into the market, that may help you decide. TSP Pilot's detailed monthly market assessments, commentary, and portfolio recommendation are of course proprietary and shared only with subscribers. But, I find them to be an affordable input to help me make TSP investment decisions I am comfortable with. I especially appreciate their recommendations on a portfolio of all 5 funds, rather than just 1 fund to hold at 100% for a long time. In a less volatile market, or whenever you decide to move away from 100% G, I would think you might find TSP Pilot's Conservative portfolio more to your liking. Without revealing details, that portfolio is only around 25% exposed in the 3 equities funds whereas their Aggressive portfolio is around 60% right now. I try to take input from a lot of sources, not just TSP Pilot, but from Sarah Oz, others in her group and other TSP sites too. Based on all that, I only feel the need to adjust my TSP portfolio a few times (2 or 3) each year. I'm trying to make fewer moves the older I get. But I'm watching more closely than ever as I approach retirement in about 3 years and this bull market nears the end of its historic run.  I hope this helps. Congrats on deciding to take charge of your TSP fund in retirement, and good luck! Jim On Sat, Aug 29, 2015 at 7:41 PM, Herminia Galang hlg13158@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:   Hi Jim, I just started my subscription with TSP Pilot. I have been retired since 2013 and just left all my TSP in G fund. Now I've decided to be a little bit more aggressive. How is your experience with TSP Pilot so far? I haven't followed it's advisory since I've subscribed in July. Thanks. Herminia Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android From:"'SETTLE, KERRY S GS-13 USAF AFMC AFCEC/CZOM' kerry.settle@us.af.mil [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> Date:Fri, Aug 28, 2015 at 10:20 AM Subject:RE: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Seasonality of Bear Markets Michael, I may have missed something in your following reply, but could expand on your following statement as to what is your strategy:  "Since my strategy mitigates about 50% of the market risk, I suggest that one could hold a bit more than the L fund relative to your age while invested.  The strategy is designed to capture most of the gains during the favorable season for equities and avoid the stress and market downdrafts during the unfavorable season." Much appreciated! Kerry -----Original Message----- From: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com [mailto:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com] Sent: Friday, August 28, 2015 8:56 AM To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Seasonality of Bear Markets   Your input is worth way more than 2 cents, Michael. Thank you! Looking at the L Funds for equities percentage (not their mix) is a good idea. However, some articles say "120 minus your age" is a good percentage to have in equities. Because I will have a great gov retirement benefit in a few years (both CSRS and FERS), I feel I can be a bit more aggressive with my TSP funds.. I have a paid subscription to TSP Pilot that I think provides an excellent monthly assessment of all markets and recommendations for conservative and aggressive TSP participants. A few years ago (about in the middle of this bull market) I paid a professional planner and asset management firm a % fee for one year to see how well my TSP account would perform based on their advice. I found them to so much more worried about preserving wealth against any possible downturn that they missed an entire year of generally upward movement! For now, I'm learning from Sarah and other's on this site, including you and several TSP sites. Thanks for your input. Jim On Fri, Aug 28, 2015 at 9:37 AM, michaelhbond@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:                   Hi Jim,     I'm not sure all the damage is in for the summer.  In 2010 after a 9% drop, the S&P 500 bounce and recouped two thirds of its gains in 3 days.  It then rolled over to deeper losses.  Yesterday was the third day of a rally. Hopefully, this does not happen again for you but it could and I think it will be a volatile summer.             As for the moving averages, most technical indicators to include moving averages are really just momentum measures that attempt to eliminate the noise from actual changes in the direction of the market.  Sometimes they work great, but sometimes the market punishes these indications by oscillating just enough to reverse direction right after your indicator signals a change.  In other words, it gets you to sell low and buy high.              The C, S and I fund are positively correlated.  Frankly most of the markets became positively correlated when the central bankers started their liquidity operations.  I do not think this correlation will change when the markets turn down.  When the US markets turn down, so will the I fund markets.             I am not a fan of the L funds since they maintain 100% exposure to the markets no matter what.  But if you are looking for a guide as to how much exposure you should have based on your age (relative to retirement), you could look at the L fund most closely aligned to your retirement date and see what percent they allocate to equities verses F/G fund.              I have found other Lifecycle funds allocation diversification do different significantly from the TSP L funds, so there is no perfect answer and everyone's situation is different.  I do highly recommend finding a fee only independent and certified financial planner to provide a tailored plan for everyone from time to time.             I would also use these same L funds as a benchmark for how you are doing instead of the C and S fund returns. Comparing your returns to 100% allocation levels is inappropriate since this is a higher risk level than most investors with large accounts and near retirement should hold.              Since my strategy mitigates about 50% of the market risk, I suggest that one could hold a bit more than the L fund relative to your age while invested.  The strategy is designed to capture most of the gains during the favorable season for equities and avoid the stress and market downdrafts during the unfavorable season.  And, of course, let's stay away from bear markets.             My two cents for the day,             Michael

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Posted by: Herminia Galang <hlg13158@yahoo.com>

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