Hello Jim,
I can not break out the best performers exposure levels just prior to the market succumbing. Mark Hulbert's Financial Digest might, but he I think he only publishes once per month and many of the best timers might be bailing in between issues as they watch the market. But here's an excerpt from the TSP Smart Investor's August Current Situation Report which I published on 30 July:
"Market Sentiment. The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Exposure Index typically reached over 85% exposure levels at market peaks in 2014 and 2015 but it has been in a steady decline since 29 April. During the last two market peaks this weekly survey failed to rise above 60% and with the 29 July rally continued to descend to 50%. Active managers according to this survey are losing confidence in the market even during rallies and currently lowering their exposure."
This index spends most of the time bouncing between 70 - 100% in equities and it did jump to 63% on 5 August, but this was still much lower than the previous peak. It was sitting at 41% on 19 August. The takeaway was that active managers had been reducing exposure as with the majority of stocks trended down even as the S&P 500 was trading sideways. The S&P 500 (TSP C fund) and being held up by fewer and fewer large companies.
Indicators like this can be used for those with a long view if you study their historical performance, but not for daily/weekly trading. It is just one indicator. One needs an ensemble of indicators that are historically validated to confirm changes in the underlying market conditions.
Hope this helps,
Michael
Posted by: michaelhbond@yahoo.com
| Reply via web post | • | Reply to sender | • | Reply to group | • | Start a New Topic | • | Messages in this topic (31) |
Belum ada komentar untuk "[TSP_Strategy] Re: Seasonality of Bear Markets"
Post a Comment