[TSP_Strategy] Re: Seasonality of Bear Markets

 

Kerry,

You can view my Learning Center for more detail.  But the short answer is I optimized an already successful advanced seasonal investing strategy specifically for the TSP C and S fund.  It only requires 2 allocation changes a year and spends about 47% of the year in the G fund during the unfavorable months for stocks.  If you view the results page of the S fund, you will note the Ulcer index (goggle it) which measures only the drawdowns in the market is impressive.  The strategy lowered the Ulcer index from 16.6 to 4.94 while producing an analyzed return of 17.5% for the S/G fund combo compared to a 9.9% for buy & holding the S fund.

Since the strategy is out of the market during the months with the most drawdowns, you could increase your allocation slightly while your in and still have a much lower risk level for your investments over the long term.  Hope that clears it up.

Michael

at TSPsmart.com in case the links don't work

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Posted by: michaelhbond@yahoo.com

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