In regard to your comment
So far, IMHO, this cycle has fallen in line with traditional cycles. S leads at the outset, C catches up, then S leads one final time before the bear cycle begins.
The S fund has more short term potential than the C fund IMHO.
Remember that the S fund includes NASDAQ stocks. While the Dow and S&P hit new highs this year, the NASDAQ is still below its previous high.
That said, all of these charts look extended. Even if the NASDAQ hits new high ground this year, I expect it to fall back significantly, losing a third or so of the ground achieved since 2000.
When the momentum shifts, it will likely be to G and/or F.
The S fund has more short term potential than the C fund IMHO.
Remember that the S fund includes NASDAQ stocks. While the Dow and S&P hit new highs this year, the NASDAQ is still below its previous high.
That said, all of these charts look extended. Even if the NASDAQ hits new high ground this year, I expect it to fall back significantly, losing a third or so of the ground achieved since 2000.
When the momentum shifts, it will likely be to G and/or F.
Sarah
Can you clarify this scenario please. I understand that the expectation is for a correction sometime this year however that is not a recession or bear market. The indicators that portend a bear market do not appear to be evident at this point. The Federal Funds Rate is well below the 2% real funds rate among other indicators so when you speak of losing a third or so of value are you talking about a correction or a recession (i.e, bear market)?
Thank you for the clarification.
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Posted by: hilgard50@yahoo.com
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