Trading St Patrick's Day by Jeff Hirsch
Saint Patrick's Day is March's sole recurring cultural event. Gains the day before Saint Patrick's Day have proved to be greater than the day itself and the day after. Perhaps it's the anticipation of the patron saint's holiday that boosts the market and the distraction from the parade down Fifth Avenue that causes equity markets to languish. Or maybe it's the fact that Saint Pat's usually falls in historically bullish Triple-Witching Week.
Whatever the case, since 1950, the S&P 500 posts an average gain of 0.22% on Saint Patrick's Day (or the next trading day when it falls on a weekend), a gain of 0.11% the day after and the day before also averages a 0.22% advance. S&P 500 median values are 0.16% on the day before, 0.23% on Saint Patrick's Day and 0.03% on the day after. In the nine years when St. Patrick's Day falls on a Tuesday, like this year, since 1950, the day before (Monday) produced an average loss of 0.06%, while Tuesday advanced an average 0.77% and Wednesday 0.29%. After today's solid gains, it would not be surprising to see St. Patrick's Day (tomorrow) finish well below the average of past Tuesdays.
Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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