Sarah,
I respect Mark Hulbert's work, but have found he tends to recycle seasonal analysis that needs updating. Since your invested in the S fund, I created a chart from my database to see if the April pattern he mentioned holds up. It doesn't. I have attached a chart of how the S fund (using the DWCPT index) has performed in the 1st ten days of April over different time frames to include the last four years.
Looking at the S&P 500 (TSP C Fund), it has followed the pattern his article mentioned looking back since 1950 and somewhat since 2001. But the last four years the first part of April have been negative for the S&P 500 like the TSP S fund. The S fund has never been strong in early April - more neutral. April of 2000 was a brutal month and is the difference in two of the plots. March 9, 2000 was the index's peak and by 14 April had lost 29%, but that would be an exceptional year. The average of the last four years has seen the S fund down by 2.3% by the 10th trading day. It begins moving up again on the 11th trading day that coincides with the mid-month bump we see in a lot of the calendar months.
I look for seasonal support and seasonal weakness as one tool in my investor toolkit. The market may go up in the next two weeks, but not because it has seasonal support. The S fund does not have it. Markets can also go down with seasonal support, it is just that they would have gone down more without it.
Hope this was useful and I hope the chart is viewable,
Michael
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