I took a slightly different direction - reading the complexity in the us markets I shifted to the I fund - though I did take a $25K hit as the market was lower than I'd have preferred. I'm not seeing the damage so far that the C fund has exhibited. I'm expecting some turn around in the I as it was already 21% down for the highs of earlier this year. Using that as a tipping point it makes sense to reap the larger gap in growth on its return.
C is now officially 10% down from its high on 9/20/18 and the S is down 14% from its high on 8/31/18 - values now are both below where they ended the year last year. I is also significantly below where it started the year though the influence there isn't as much the US economy and taxes as it is the looming threats of instability in Europe (brexit) and the shifting policy on foreign products (trade tariffs) which could both be over influential and result in a snap back return once the world leaders get their collective acts together.
I may be off in my estimates but I'm expecting the C and the S to continue a downward trend for at least another 4-6 months due in part to the instability with our economic markers and the expectations that retailers have for sales that just are not merited through the reduced availability of funds by the consumers. Every upturn in the C in the last few months has been followed by a deeper drop - resulting in a total loss of the years gains.
IMO, fear leads this trend and far too many are being benched as the big cats come out to play - taking out any profits they can before the expected fall. Its been more than six years since our last major slip - long overdue for the market to slide back into more realistic valuations against the economic pressures.
On Tuesday, November 20, 2018, 2:55:32 PM PST, Scott N scottnieto@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Got out after the first drop in October, lost 20K, down 10K for the year. Probably avoided another 30K in losses.
Tricky part will be getting back in at the right time.
Tricky part will be getting back in at the right time.
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Posted by: MDJ <jonesmd2@yahoo.com>
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