I want to correct this statement stand by scsi_guru regarding TSP Wealth: "Historically they have always been near the top for returns." That's simply not true. I've been following the returns of every TSP advisory service I can find for several years and this is how they stand through 2017. The number is the Compound Annual Return over the last 12 years (which is the length of returns available for all of these services except for Intrepid Timer, who started in 2008). TSP Wealth has among the worst returns, not the best.
TSPTiming.com Bull/Bear = 22.86%
TSPMillionaire.com = 18.22%
TSPKey.com = 14.31%
TSPInvesting..com = 13.95%
TSPFundtrading.com = 13.95%
TSPSmart.com = 13.43% (11 years through 2016)
Sumgrowth.com = 12.56%
TSPCoach.com = 12.94%
TSPTalk.com Plus System = 12.33%
TSPTalk.com Intrepid Timer = 12.07% (10 years since 2008)
Thrifttrading.com = 10.01%
Buy and hold of the C fund = 8.88%
TSPFolio.com = 7.50%
TSP Strategy Blog = 6.03%
TSPPilot.com Aggressive = 5.85% (11 years through 2016)
TSPWealth.com = 5.38%
TSPMax.com = 3.06% (11 years through 2016)
Notes:
- As for my own system's returns I consider it still in the mode of proving itself for the next few years since it only went "live" in mid-2016. Before that the returns are "back-tested". The 2017 return was 14.04%, not great, and through Friday the 2018 return is -0.37%, not great but beating the C fund currently, which is the goal. It's currently in the I fund since the strong seasonality of the I fund starts around mid-March and usually lasts until late April or early May. Here's a chart where you can visually see the strength of foreign stocks over the S&P 500 this time of year, and it is indeed happening again this year: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFA%3ASPY&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p06160716351
- Three of the sites still have not reported their 2017 returns online that I can find. Those are TSP Key, TSP Smart, and TSP Pilot, but I got the 2017 TSP Key return (14.77%) off of TSPCenter.com.
- TSP Key retroactively greatly increased his past returns last year, which great boosted the CAR.
- Intrepid Timer returns are for 10 years starting in 2008.
- TSP Max had the worst CAR of all, just 3.06% for the eleven years through 2016, and the service was discontinued at the end of 2017.
- Other sites I'm aware of but that don't post their returns include: TheFedTrader.com, TSPStrategist.com, TSPAllocation.com, TSPStrategies.com, TSPSafetynet.com, and TSPAdvisor.com.
- If anyone disputes any of these CARs please send me your data. I want to be sure my data is 100% correct. As for the TSP Strategy blog returns, this is what I have which Sara has reported: 2006 = 26.3%, 2007 = 11.4%, 2008 = -42.4%, 2009 = 30.0%, 2010 = 7.9%, 2011 = -3.4%, 2012 = 13.8%, 2013 = 20.5%, 2014 = 9.8%, 2015 = -3.9%, 2016 = 7.5%, 2017 = 18.2%.
Posted by: barbs <miandsh2000@yahoo.com>
| Reply via web post | • | Reply to sender | • | Reply to group | • | Start a New Topic | • | Messages in this topic (28) |
Belum ada komentar untuk "Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: TSP Wealth"
Post a Comment