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RE: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

RE: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

Do you think it might be a good time to move to I from?  I know there is no crystal ball but just wondering your thoughts. thanks

 

Patricia Holm

 


From: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com [mailto:TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com]
Sent: Saturday, May 30, 2015 11:24 AM
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

 

True that at some point, interest rates will rise. That's been the thinking for the past year or more. In the meantime I Fund out performed S Fund by ~4% so far this year.

 

I-Fund is this year's solid best performer, up 10.42% year to date, floating nicely above 50 and 100 moving averages since early February. The I-Fund proxy, EFA, broke through the resistance point of 65 back on April 1. For those that don't already have a good fraction of I-Fund in their equities portfolio, do you think it's too late to move in that direction now? What do you think will be the next resistance point for those who are already in  I-Fund, perhaps 70?

I fund rise is largely due to USD falling from March to May.  USD has been rising since mid-May.  When (if) interest rates rise, USD will shoot up significantly, further decreasing I fund returns.

1 month returns
S fund 1.8%
C fund 1.1%
I fund   0.2%

2 week returns
S fund 0.2%
C fund -0.6%
I fund -2.3%




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Posted by: "Pat Holm" <patholm@ec.rr.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

YES, regarding watching asset allocation in retirement...

The more you have in pensions and "bucket" money to cover expenses for a few years, the more you can handle risk in market. Most financial planners, fiduciary ones included, suggest 1-3 years in expenses, but if you're in significant percentages in the market , it may have to be more.

Psychology is powerful...many cannot stand seeing a portfolio down much more than 15-20%. Many get nervous and sell at wrong point, thinking they could either lose more or never had a real plan in case that happened. Some don't think it will happen to them. I've seen it, it's not pretty.

Best wishes to all.
Thanks for good info, Sarah !




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Posted by: Liz Sharpe <lizhsharpe@gmail.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

Those of you who are 60 to 80 in equities in retirement, its all good in bull market but when you lose 40 percent, how will you survive in retirement, remember you want to take calculated risk

Those of you who are mostly in the G fund, pleaase realize that, over the long run, your return will be outperformed by all equity funds, and by the inflation rate.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

Those of you who are 60 to 80 in equities in retirement, its all good in bull market but when you lose 40 percent, how will you survive in retirement, remember you want to take calculated risk

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Posted by: rezvii@gmail.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

True that at some point, interest rates will rise. That's been the thinking for the past year or more. In the meantime I Fund out performed S Fund by ~4% so far this year.

 

I-Fund is this year's solid best performer, up 10.42% year to date, floating nicely above 50 and 100 moving averages since early February. The I-Fund proxy, EFA, broke through the resistance point of 65 back on April 1. For those that don't already have a good fraction of I-Fund in their equities portfolio, do you think it's too late to move in that direction now? What do you think will be the next resistance point for those who are already in  I-Fund, perhaps 70?

I fund rise is largely due to USD falling from March to May.  USD has been rising since mid-May.  When (if) interest rates rise, USD will shoot up significantly, further decreasing I fund returns.

1 month returns
S fund 1.8%
C fund 1.1%
I fund   0.2%

2 week returns
S fund 0.2%
C fund -0.6%
I fund -2.3%





__._,_.___

Posted by: JM Bud <jmbud2@gmail.com>
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (6)
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

I-Fund is this year's solid best performer, up 10.42% year to date, floating nicely above 50 and 100 moving averages since early February. The I-Fund proxy, EFA, broke through the resistance point of 65 back on April 1. For those that don't already have a good fraction of I-Fund in their equities portfolio, do you think it's too late to move in that direction now? What do you think will be the next resistance point for those who are already in  I-Fund, perhaps 70?

I fund rise is largely due to USD falling from March to May.  USD has been rising since mid-May.  When (if) interest rates rise, USD will shoot up significantly, further decreasing I fund returns.

1 month returns
S fund 1.8%
C fund 1.1%
I fund   0.2%

2 week returns
S fund 0.2%
C fund -0.6%
I fund -2.3%





__._,_.___

Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

Re: [TSP_Strategy] I Fund Chart

 

I-Fund is this year's solid best performer, up 10.42% year to date, floating nicely above 50 and 100 moving averages since early February. The I-Fund proxy, EFA, broke through the resistance point of 65 back on April 1. For those that don't already have a good fraction of I-Fund in their equities portfolio, do you think it's too late to move in that direction now? What do you think will be the next resistance point for those who are already in  I-Fund, perhaps 70?

On Feb 26, 2015 5:08 PM, "JM Bud" <jmbud2@gmail.com> wrote:
Thanks for your help, Sarah. So are you seeing resistance on this 1 year chart somewhere around 65, assuming it's at the mid point of another 3 month wave? 

Is that similar to observing that we just had an inflection point on the I Fund's 100-day moving average, or that it just crossed over the 200-day moving average? See http://tspcenter.com/tspReturns.php 

On Thu, Feb 26, 2015 at 4:50 PM, sarah_oz@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 



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Posted by: JM Bud <jmbud2@gmail.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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[TSP_Strategy] Inflation and Unemployment

[TSP_Strategy] Inflation and Unemployment

 


Inflation and Unemployment

Chart of the Week for May 29, 2015 - June 4, 2015

Unemployment has fallen to 5.5%, with many economists projecting unemployment to reach 5.2% in early 2016, which many define as "full employment." Inflation is currently at 1.35%, which is below the FOMC 2.0% mandate.

Two of the major economic indicators the Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC") of the U.S. Federal Reserve Board ("Fed") uses to guide their monetary policy activities are the unemployment rate and the inflation rate. Those indicators help the FOMC measure progress toward its "dual mandate" of full employment and stable prices.

The FOMC's preferred measure of inflation is core Personal Consumption Expenditures ("PCE"), which is reported monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The current FOMC mandate for inflation is 2%, which was established in 2012.

Monthly unemployment data is gathered and published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The FOMC has not published a set measure for unemployment, as employment changes over time and they use projections that can vary from quarter to quarter. Many economists are currently defining full employment as having been achieved when the unemployment rate drops to 5.2%, which many anticipate will be achieved by early 2016.

Investors monitor these two indicators closely, since the Fed policy statements and actions can have significant impact on markets. As noted in chart above, unemployment has been on a steady decline over the three year period shown. The most recent reading, March 2015, was 5.5%. Inflation has generally declined over the three year period shown from 2.04% in March 2012 to 1.35% in March 2015. Historically, economists have been concerned that higher employment levels will lead to growth in inflation as more money is available to be spent on goods and services. However, in this three year period, slow wage growth overall and falling energy prices have kept increases in the inflation rate low.


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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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[TSP_Strategy] Feds in Cities to Receive Pay Raises

[TSP_Strategy] Feds in Cities to Receive Pay Raises

 

Tens of Thousands of Feds to Receive Significant Pay Raise Next Year

May 27, 2015

Tens of thousands of federal employees will soon receive a pay raise thanks to an Obama administration decision to designate 13 cities as unique pay localities.

The decision comes after years of deliberation, including tentative approval in May 2013. The cities will now receive unique locality-based pay adjustments, rather than being lumped in with the "rest of United States" grouping.

The 13 cities are: Albany, N.Y.; Albuquerque, N.M.; Austin, Texas; Charlotte, N.C.; Colorado Springs, Co.; Davenport, Iowa; Harrisburg, Pa.; Kansas City, Mo.; Laredo, Texas; Las Vegas, Nev.; Palm Bay, Fla.; St. Louis, Mo.; and Tucson, Ariz.

The Saint Louis area alone is home to 30,000 federal employees, according to the area's Federal Executive Board Executive Director Arch McKinlay. More than 18,000 feds live in the Kansas City metropolitan area, according to a 2013 OPM report. Albuquerque, Colorado Springs and Tucson were also among the 50 largest populations of federal workers.

"I'm very glad it happened," McKinlay said. "It was disingenuous to say we were like the 'rest of the world.' " The new designation helps to recognize the area has its own costs of living, he added. The 'rest of United States' provided a 14.16 percent pay bump on top of feds' base salaries in 2014, lower than any of the 33 specific area adjustments.

Larry Hisle, McKinlay's counterpart in Kansas City, was also appreciative, especially considering his region used to have its own locality pay.

"I think everyone is excited," Hisle said. While the details are not yet known, he added, "it can only be a good thing."

The Office of Management and Budget told labor groups the new pay adjustments will take effect in January. The Federal Salary Council -- made up union representatives and pay policy experts -- has for years called for the creation of the new localities, citing data from the Office of Personnel Management and Bureau of Labor and Statistics.

The President's Pay Agent "tentatively" approved the council's recommendations in 2013, but did not make a "final decision on what the timing should be for this possible change." The salary council said at that time, and many times since, that BLS data showed pay in the 13 cities lagged significantly behind that of the private sector and local governments.

"The administration is committed to ensuring the federal government remains competitive in attracting and retaining the nation's best and brightest individuals for public service," an OMB official told Government Executive. The official added that is what prompted the administration to institute "modest" pay raises "after years of pay freezes, furloughs and sequestration," and why it is moving forward with the locality pay areas.

The decision was welcome news to federal employee groups.

"I am delighted that the administration has supported this initiative and come through with its commitment to have the new localities in place starting next year," said American Federation of Government Employees Public Policy Director and Federal Salary Council member Jacqueline Simon. Federal employees nationwide have suffered terribly from pay freezes and below-market salaries. This is tremendous news and will help many middle-class families pay their bills."

The specifics of the pay adjustment for each city, as well as the exact boundaries for the metropolitan areas that will be included, will be determined in the coming months. 

(Image via iCreative3D / Shutterstock.com)


May 27, 2015

Tens of Thousands of Feds to Receive Significant Pay Raise Next Year

 

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Is Leaving the TSP a Good Idea?

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Is Leaving the TSP a Good Idea?

 

I have thought about that myself. I intend to conduct a mass rollover from the TSP to a Traditional IRA (and Roth TSP to Roth IRA) and then convert small portions of the Traditional IRA into Roth over time to minimize taxes.

However, it will be very slow. I won't start any of this until I separate from service several years from now.

Allen

On May 29, 2015 10:37 PM, "TATERHED@HOTMAIL.COM [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

Mark, clearly you're not a FED.

I hope you're not going to suggest that we visit your website (again) for TSP or any other investment advice.

But, thanks for chiming in.  If you think '...this site is probably causing as much harm....'  perhaps you should consider trolling another site for potential investors.

I'll happily stick with Sarah (and other members advice) for now.


Back on topic, I really liked the idea of 'buckets' for post retirement investing.  Seems progressive, but with manageable risk for those who don't need immediate access to all their capital/income.  The age 70 rule kinda shoots that in the foot, but that's a few years downrange for now...

cheers.


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Posted by: Allen Green <gtwhitegold@gmail.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Is Leaving the TSP a Good Idea?

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Is Leaving the TSP a Good Idea?

 

You are correct - I am not a FED. I have family members that are and asked me to contribute.  Hope the information I provide helps.  All the best

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Posted by: Mark Del Pezzo <markdelpezzo@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] Re: Is Leaving the TSP a Good Idea?

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Is Leaving the TSP a Good Idea?

 

Mark, clearly you're not a FED.

I hope you're not going to suggest that we visit your website (again) for TSP or any other investment advice.

But, thanks for chiming in.  If you think '...this site is probably causing as much harm....'  perhaps you should consider trolling another site for potential investors.

I'll happily stick with Sarah (and other members advice) for now.


Back on topic, I really liked the idea of 'buckets' for post retirement investing.  Seems progressive, but with manageable risk for those who don't need immediate access to all their capital/income.  The age 70 rule kinda shoots that in the foot, but that's a few years downrange for now...

cheers.


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Posted by: TATERHED@HOTMAIL.COM
Reply via web post Reply to sender Reply to group Start a New Topic Messages in this topic (10)
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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