Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Current and Historic of the TSP_Strategy Allocations

 

Thanks for the reply Robert. 

I was scared into G because of information from a subscription TSP timing service whose data indicated a major correction. The service has a good history/track record but since I have been there (2-3 yrs) I have missed much of the market upside. 

Of course that time coincides with the Trump presidency which they feared would hurt the equities market. ..we know how that worked out. 

This is why I searched for/found this group.  I am new so I have barely scratched the surface of your resources but I appreciate that it is here.  I look forward to participating toward the goal of us all making more money. 

-troy

On Jul 24, 2019, 5:13 AM -0700, robert winfield winfield100@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>, wrote:

Why are you scared into the G fund? You have access to a large amount of data that tells you what everyone else is thinking, more or less, a consensus of the "zeitgeist" of the "Market"

I graph things daily. I ignore G fund as it's basically like ca$h, and the F fund is a mystery

But, you can download, for free, in chunks of 999 days from TSP Charts & Returns - Thrift Savings Plan

TSP Charts & Returns - Thrift Savings Plan TSP Center is the premier resource for government employees and military personnel participating in the TSP Thri...

If you have excel or similar, you can graph for a visual representation of "whats going on today, yesterday, last month, last year, etc and get a "feel"

I use moving averages for smoothing, actual daily close data, a 2 standard deviation envelop for upper and lower bounds (called Bollinger bands after John Bollinger) and a repreentation of

Is the daily close greater or lower than the 5 day moving average

Is the 5 day moving average greater or lower than the 20 day average

Is the 20 day moving average greater or less than the 50 day average

add, 0, 1, 2 or 3 depending

also, to a lesser degree, what is the 10 day average of the slope (rate of change)

here are some graphical representations 

(since you are retired, you also should have a lot of free time, I retired in 2016)

SO, to me C & S looks like going upwards, perhaps slowing, but upwards

<1563968897038blob.jpg>

I fund looks like it's flattening just a bit, keep an eye on
<1563968936939blob.jpg>

hmm, C, S, I starting to look a bit flat, but, still, but I looks weaker maybe
<1563969011096blob.jpg>

Rates of change (slope) decreasing it seems

<>
SO, i'm still in S fund, but keping an eye upon it

and for perspective, about the last year of the daily, 5 day, 20 day and 50 day

(Note the breakdown of C & S and to a lesser extent around Sept  Oct., 

i play around with the parameters all the time and the graphs change, but have not figured how to do dynamic graphs yet

<>

On Wednesday, July 24, 2019, 12:05:49 AM EDT, snpperhd@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Like Joe, I do not see any TSP_Strategy historical allocation data, just the 7 current allocations by Sarah and company.  If none is available that is fine, but can I assume that allocations are irrespective of whether you are currently retired or still working?

I am recently retired (31 Dec 2018) and currently scared into 100% G thinking a big correction is near.  Seems you all have a different opinion.  Hope that is true.

-troy

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Posted by: TK Ham <snpperhd@gmail.com>

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