Fantastic to hear from you Tex! Thank you for sharing your wisdom/experience--always comforting and spot on. Please let us know your next moves if you're so inclined! I have made a nice, warm little den within G as well during this Northern California cold blast we're experiencing.
God Bless and Happy New Year!
Kim
--------------------------------------------
On Sun, 12/30/18, mrweyl@hotmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 4:52 PM
Fellow Board Members,
I have very belatedly interpreted
the quantitative tightening by the Fed to be equivalent to
an increase in bank reserve requirements, so that the Zweig
Fed model is now a strong sell. This makes the overall Zweig
supermodel a Sell, for the first time in well over 10
years.
The
quantitative easing from 2009-2016 did not fall within
Zweig's framework because, as far as I know, it had
never been done before. It did have the effect of reducing
bank reserve requirements, as the Fed bought up large
amounts of non-Treasury debt.
By analogy, I should have treated
the current runoff of the previously purchased debt as the
reverse of quantitative easing and therefore as increased
bank reserve requirements, which takes liquidity out of the
system.
Sorry I am
late with this. However, the Zweig model is not a short-term
trading model and therefore still indicates that a
protracted upward market move is unlikely.
As usual, take this with a grain of
salt, especially if one is currently investing for
retirement. All the above says is to be
patient.
I moved my
TSP entirely into the G Fund at higher levels, but that was
not based on the Zweig model, which I was reporting as low
to neutral - just above a sell.
Shorter
term traders of course would see this situation
differently.
Good Luck
and Happy New Year,Tex
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