Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Dow Soars 1086 Points

 

Identification Guidelines for Dead-Cat Bounces

Reference the above figure in the following table.

Characteristic	Discussion
Price gap	Price usually gaps downward, closing 15% to 70% lower than the prior day. The average event decline from prior close to trend low is 31%.
Trend low	Forty-six percent make a lower low the next day, 17% continue lower the next day, then 9%, and then 3%, respectively. From the event day to the trend low averages 7 days.
Bounce	After the event day decline, price bounces. Twenty-two percent will close the gap during the bounce phase, 38% will close it in 3 months, and 58% will close the gap in 6 months. The average bounce height from event low to bounce high is 28% and takes 23 days.
Post bounce decline	Once the bounce completes, price resumes declining, averaging 30% from the bounce high to post bounce low in 49 days. This places price an average of 18% below the event low 67% of the time.
Second dead-cat bounce	Twenty-six percent will have a second dead-cat bounce measuring at least 15% within 3 months, and 38% will dead-cat bounce within 6 months.

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Ditulis oleh: Andriansyah -