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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Zweig Model Update

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Zweig Model Update

 

Fellow Board Members,

I have very belatedly interpreted the quantitative tightening by the Fed to be equivalent to an increase in bank reserve requirements, so that the Zweig Fed model is now a strong sell. This makes the overall Zweig supermodel a Sell, for the first time in well over 10 years.


Thanks Tex.  Could you please explain to everyone what Zweig's Fed model and Supermodel consist of, and therefore, why they are both SELLs at this point?  Thanks.

BTW, while I agree that US markets have now entered a long term (1-2 years) bear market, I believe that we should continue to see a bull market shorter term (1-2 months) which may be characterized as a DCB.

__._,_.___
Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Andriansyah / Tulis Komentar / Baca Selengkapnya »
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update

 

Fantastic to hear from you Tex! Thank you for sharing your wisdom/experience--always comforting and spot on. Please let us know your next moves if you're so inclined! I have made a nice, warm little den within G as well during this Northern California cold blast we're experiencing.
God Bless and Happy New Year!
Kim
--------------------------------------------
On Sun, 12/30/18, mrweyl@hotmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, December 30, 2018, 4:52 PM


 









Fellow Board Members,
I have very belatedly interpreted
the quantitative tightening by the Fed to be equivalent to
an increase in bank reserve requirements, so that the Zweig
Fed model is now a strong sell. This makes the overall Zweig
supermodel a Sell, for the first time in well over 10
years.
The
quantitative easing from 2009-2016 did not fall within
Zweig's framework because, as far as I know, it had
never been done before. It did have the effect of reducing
bank reserve requirements, as the Fed bought up large
amounts of non-Treasury debt.
By analogy, I should have treated
the current runoff of the previously purchased debt as the
reverse of quantitative easing and therefore as increased
bank reserve requirements, which takes liquidity out of the
system.
Sorry I am
late with this. However, the Zweig model is not a short-term
trading model and therefore still indicates that a
protracted upward market move is unlikely.
As usual, take this with a grain of
salt, especially if one is currently investing for
retirement. All the above says is to be
patient.
I moved my
TSP entirely into the G Fund at higher levels, but that was
not based on the Zweig model, which I was reporting as low
to neutral - just above a sell.

Shorter
term traders of course would see this situation
differently.
Good Luck
and Happy New Year,Tex










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__._,_.___
Posted by: "kb2018@ymail.com" <kb2018@ymail.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (3)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___
Andriansyah / Tulis Komentar / Baca Selengkapnya »
[TSP_Strategy] Re: Zweig Model Update

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Zweig Model Update

 

Fellow Board Members,

I have very belatedly interpreted the quantitative tightening by the Fed to be equivalent to an increase in bank reserve requirements, so that the Zweig Fed model is now a strong sell. This makes the overall Zweig supermodel a Sell, for the first time in well over 10 years.


Thanks Tex.  Could you please explain to everyone what Zweig's Fed model and Supermodel consist of, and therefore, why they are both SELLs at this point?  Thanks.

__._,_.___
Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (2)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___
Andriansyah / Tulis Komentar / Baca Selengkapnya »
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Digest Number 5482

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Digest Number 5482

 

On Sat, Dec 29, 2018 at 9:39 PM, TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
<TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

1 Message

Digest #5482

Message

Sat Dec 29, 2018 8:39 am (PST) . Posted by:

sarah_oz

Charts of the Week Five Investment Resolutions for 2019 Chart of the Week for December 28, 2018 - January 3, 2019
It's a popular time of the year to start thinking about New Year's resolutions. Here at ICMA-RC, we offer you five investment ideas to consider for 2019 resolutions:
Review your investment plan - Calculate your net worth and review your investment plan to ensure it continues to be on track with your financial goals for retirement and your risk tolerance. If you don't have an investment plan, set one up. Review your investment portfolio - Evaluate your asset allocations, which are likely to have shifted during the year, in part due to the differing performance of various asset classes. Consider rebalancing to maintain your target allocations and risk tolerance. Pay yourself more - Increase the amount you contribute to your retirement savings plan this year.. Think of the future and your retirement needs. If your employer offers a match, make sure to take maximum advantage of those extra funds. For 2019, the retirement plan Regular Contribution limit is increased to $19,000 and the retirement plan Catch-Up Contribution limit is unchanged at $6,000. Learn at least one new thing about investments - Education can help you better understand your investment options and generate new ideas. Try reading a book on personal finances or use the many resources available on the internet. Classes on investing are also readily available--either online or in a classroom. Consider opening an IRA - Consult your tax advisor to determine which IRA or retirement plan option may be best for you. The earlier you start saving, the longer your money has the potential to grow.

Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

__._,_.___
Posted by: John MorkSr <jmorksr@yahoo.com>
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (1)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___
Andriansyah / Tulis Komentar / Baca Selengkapnya »
[TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update

[TSP_Strategy] Zweig Model Update

 

Fellow Board Members,

I have very belatedly interpreted the quantitative tightening by the Fed to be equivalent to an increase in bank reserve requirements, so that the Zweig Fed model is now a strong sell. This makes the overall Zweig supermodel a Sell, for the first time in well over 10 years.

The quantitative easing from 2009-2016 did not fall within Zweig's framework because, as far as I know, it had never been done before. It did have the effect of reducing bank reserve requirements, as the Fed bought up large amounts of non-Treasury debt.

By analogy, I should have treated the current runoff of the previously purchased debt as the reverse of quantitative easing and therefore as increased bank reserve requirements, which takes liquidity out of the system.

Sorry I am late with this. However, the Zweig model is not a short-term trading model and therefore still indicates that a protracted upward market move is unlikely.

As usual, take this with a grain of salt, especially if one is currently investing for retirement. All the above says is to be patient.

I moved my TSP entirely into the G Fund at higher levels, but that was not based on the Zweig model, which I was reporting as low to neutral - just above a sell.

Shorter term traders of course would see this situation differently.

Good Luck and Happy New Year,
Tex

__._,_.___
Posted by: mrweyl@hotmail.com
Reply via web post • Reply to sender • Reply to group • Start a New Topic • Messages in this topic (1)
Have you tried the highest rated email app?
With 4.5 stars in iTunes, the Yahoo Mail app is the highest rated email app on the market. What are you waiting for? Now you can access all your inboxes (Gmail, Outlook, AOL and more) in one place. Never delete an email again with 1000GB of free cloud storage.
Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

SPONSORED LINKS
.

__,_._,___
Andriansyah / Tulis Komentar / Baca Selengkapnya »
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