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[TSP_Strategy] Re: Bear period outside of tsp

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Bear period outside of tsp

 

Any particular reason why? My understanding is that bonds tend to do "better" during recessions due to falling interest rates (that may be incorrect).

Is the F fund and or bonds in general faring well due to the fact that we are in a bear market? I had thought interest rates were on the way up, although slowly.

I'm 100% F, just trying to understand a little bit better.

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Posted by: sloanrecms@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

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[TSP_Strategy] The Market's Hidden Risk

[TSP_Strategy] The Market's Hidden Risk

 

Opinion: This hidden risk will likely sabotage the stock market

Published: Mar 29, 2016 8:51 a.m. ET

Shrinking corporate profit margins are becoming a huge problem

Chances are good that the U.S. stock market will be a disappointment over the next five years.

Here's why: Shrinking profit margins will almost surely cause stock investors pain. Even under optimistic assumptions, it's hard to see how those lower margins will allow the stock market to produce annualized returns from until now 2020 higher than in the low single-digits. Under more realistic assumptions, the market will do much worse.

This depressing picture derives from an under-appreciated statistic imbedded in last week's revision of fourth-quarter GDP. I say "under-appreciated" because most of Wall Street focused on the cheery headline number in the government's report — an upward revision of GDP growth in the last three months of 2015 from 1.0% to 1.4%.

American Airlines stock is crazy cheap
(5:20)

Barron's Bounce: The airline's shares are taking off after a recommendation in the magazine. Plus: An undervalued media giant, a small cap jumping 7% and a back door way to invest in hedge funds.

But the report also showed that corporate profit margins — profits as a percentage of GDP — experienced one of their largest quarterly declines in years. That percentage is now 2.2 percentage points lower than where it stood in the first quarter of 2012 (see the chart at the top of this column).

That may not seem like a big deal, but it is. For every 1% drop in profit margins, for instance, corporate sales have to grow 1% faster in order for companies merely to maintain their previous earnings per share.

But the true picture is worse. Notice from the above chart that profit margins are in a distinct downtrend that is likely to last a lot longer. Almost without exception over the last seven decades, a decline of the magnitude already experienced took margins below where we stand currently.

The accompanying table reports the stock market's annualized return over the next five years under various profit margin scenarios. My calculations assume that corporate sales per share will continue to grow at the same rate they have since 2009 (3.9% annualized) and the S&P 500's SPX, +0.08%   price/earnings ratio remains constant.

If corporate profit margins…

S&P 500's annualized return from now until March 31, 2020

Stay where they are now

3.9%

Decline to their historical average

1.7%

Overshoot the average and fall to where they stood at the trough of past profit-margin declines

-5.6%

Is it possible for the U.S. market to do better? Of course, but the odds are quite low. The three, and only three, ways for equities to beat the odds are:

1. P/E expansion: If price/earnings ratios widen, of course, then the market can rise even in the face of declining profits. But the S&P 500's current P/E ratio is already 46% higher than the average since 1871, according to data from Yale University's Robert Shiller.

2. Accelerated growth in corporate sales: If sales grow faster, needless to say, then a lower profit margin can still translate into decent earnings. But the accompanying projections assume that sales growth experienced since the bottom of the last recession will continue for at least five more years — which unrealistically assumes no recession between now and 2020.

3. Expanding profit margins: Though it's possible for profit margins to reverse their downtrend, it's hard to see how. The two major factors cited for profit margin expansion earlier this decade were lower taxes and declining interest rates. I can't imagine lower corporate rates emerging anytime soon from our paralyzed political system, and average interest rates over the last five years are almost surely going to be higher going forward.

The bottom line? Hold the champagne. Though the government's upward revision of GDP growth looked positive on the surface, a deeper look at the data shows the stock market currently is on shaky ground.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

I use 4 main sources, tsp talk, tsp strategy, tsp allocation, and daily fx to get educated about the markets and hear analysis from people who know more than me. Basically it comes down to my choice and i rarely follow the herd. Get educated, knowledge is power. I think the greatest advice ive learned over the last 8 years of learning is technicals and fundamentals need to be in agreement. The technicals may look good but are the fundamental drivers there to push the technicals. 


 

It all comes down to your risk appetite and how long till you retire also. If your gut churns and you get acid reflux when the market goes down, then G. If you can absorb some temporary losses because you believe the market will inevitably bounce back, then play around. You havent lost anything until you cash out, it all on paper. I dance around the market and take little bites here and there. Im like a fish in a cave waiting for a tender morsel to swim by, but i also dont want to get swallowed whole when i come out for a bite.


 

That sounds like some sound information. But I've been hearing some talk about moving to the G fund to wait out all of the ups and downs. Is that a good or poor option?


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On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 12:19, ryan smith mashiach7@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Heres my opinion, we are safe in F fund right now, because it looks like no interest rate increases for a while, but if you want to gamble I'd bet that the equties will do well in April and the as we get close to May, we may see another tumble. We are in an Election year and have been following that trace pretty well, but I am waiting for some upper resistance to break on S, C, And I before i get in for a piece. I would have been in I fund this morning but I used all my trades up this month. So i will re evaluate come April 1. I pick I fund because of europe, japan stimulus and falling dollar.


 

Hello everyone. At this point would it be better to stay in the F fund 100%, or move everything to the C fund 100% ?


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On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 11:58, jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

The closing price of the C Fund moved above its 200 day moving average back on March 10 and is up about 4% since then. 


But, as Sarah pointed out, holding 100% in F is not exactly sitting it out on the sidelines. F is up about 1% in that some time frame while G is up a tenth of that.

Jim

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Posted by: ryan smith <mashiach7@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

It all comes down to your risk appetite and how long till you retire also. If your gut churns and you get acid reflux when the market goes down, then G. If you can absorb some temporary losses because you believe the market will inevitably bounce back, then play around. You havent lost anything until you cash out, it all on paper. I dance around the market and take little bites here and there. Im like a fish in a cave waiting for a tender morsel to swim by, but i also dont want to get swallowed whole when i come out for a bite.


 

That sounds like some sound information. But I've been hearing some talk about moving to the G fund to wait out all of the ups and downs. Is that a good or poor option?


Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 12:19, ryan smith mashiach7@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Heres my opinion, we are safe in F fund right now, because it looks like no interest rate increases for a while, but if you want to gamble I'd bet that the equties will do well in April and the as we get close to May, we may see another tumble. We are in an Election year and have been following that trace pretty well, but I am waiting for some upper resistance to break on S, C, And I before i get in for a piece. I would have been in I fund this morning but I used all my trades up this month. So i will re evaluate come April 1. I pick I fund because of europe, japan stimulus and falling dollar.


 

Hello everyone. At this point would it be better to stay in the F fund 100%, or move everything to the C fund 100% ?


Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 11:58, jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

The closing price of the C Fund moved above its 200 day moving average back on March 10 and is up about 4% since then. 


But, as Sarah pointed out, holding 100% in F is not exactly sitting it out on the sidelines. F is up about 1% in that some time frame while G is up a tenth of that.

Jim

__._,_.___

Posted by: ryan smith <mashiach7@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

That sounds like some sound information. But I've been hearing some talk about moving to the G fund to wait out all of the ups and downs. Is that a good or poor option?


Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 12:19, ryan smith mashiach7@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Heres my opinion, we are safe in F fund right now, because it looks like no interest rate increases for a while, but if you want to gamble I'd bet that the equties will do well in April and the as we get close to May, we may see another tumble. We are in an Election year and have been following that trace pretty well, but I am waiting for some upper resistance to break on S, C, And I before i get in for a piece. I would have been in I fund this morning but I used all my trades up this month. So i will re evaluate come April 1. I pick I fund because of europe, japan stimulus and falling dollar.


 

Hello everyone. At this point would it be better to stay in the F fund 100%, or move everything to the C fund 100% ?


Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 11:58, jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

The closing price of the C Fund moved above its 200 day moving average back on March 10 and is up about 4% since then. 


But, as Sarah pointed out, holding 100% in F is not exactly sitting it out on the sidelines. F is up about 1% in that some time frame while G is up a tenth of that.

Jim

__._,_.___

Posted by: aaven middleton <aavenmiddleton@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

Heres my opinion, we are safe in F fund right now, because it looks like no interest rate increases for a while, but if you want to gamble I'd bet that the equties will do well in April and the as we get close to May, we may see another tumble. We are in an Election year and have been following that trace pretty well, but I am waiting for some upper resistance to break on S, C, And I before i get in for a piece. I would have been in I fund this morning but I used all my trades up this month. So i will re evaluate come April 1. I pick I fund because of europe, japan stimulus and falling dollar.


 

Hello everyone. At this point would it be better to stay in the F fund 100%, or move everything to the C fund 100% ?


Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 11:58, jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

The closing price of the C Fund moved above its 200 day moving average back on March 10 and is up about 4% since then. 


But, as Sarah pointed out, holding 100% in F is not exactly sitting it out on the sidelines. F is up about 1% in that some time frame while G is up a tenth of that.

Jim

__._,_.___

Posted by: ryan smith <mashiach7@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

Hello everyone. At this point would it be better to stay in the F fund 100%, or move everything to the C fund 100% ?


Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone

On Wednesday, March 30, 2016, 11:58, jmbud2@gmail.com [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

The closing price of the C Fund moved above its 200 day moving average back on March 10 and is up about 4% since then. 


But, as Sarah pointed out, holding 100% in F is not exactly sitting it out on the sidelines. F is up about 1% in that some time frame while G is up a tenth of that.

Jim

__._,_.___

Posted by: aaven middleton <aavenmiddleton@yahoo.com>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

The closing price of the C Fund moved above its 200 day moving average back on March 10 and is up about 4% since then. 


But, as Sarah pointed out, holding 100% in F is not exactly sitting it out on the sidelines. F is up about 1% in that some time frame while G is up a tenth of that.

Jim

__._,_.___

Posted by: jmbud2@gmail.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
RE: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

RE: [TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

The 50 day MA has been below the 200 day MA since September 2015.  Today's surge was because of Janet's comments.  I know we have had a good run of late with the nice "W" pattern, but overall we still look to be headed down.

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Posted by: "Scott Anderson" <scott7923@md.metrocast.net>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
[TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

[TSP_Strategy] Re: Second thoughts

 

It's hard being on the sidelines right now. Any other thoughts from anyone right now? $DWCPF was 953 when we made the switch to F... About 4% ago

You may return to equities at any time.  FWIW, bonds are not the sidelines.

If you recall, when we were at 850 or so, and everyone was moving to the G fund, I said that we should hold on because there would be a bounce.  Well, this is the bounce.

I also stated at that time that I thought the S fund could return to about 1000 or so, but that I wanted to be conservative in moving to bonds a bit early. 

That view still stands.

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Posted by: sarah_oz@yahoo.com
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

__,_._,___
Re: [TSP_Strategy] Second thoughts

Re: [TSP_Strategy] Second thoughts

 

I stayed in the S fund because I feared missing a rally more than I feared staying in the S fund while it went down, even if it tanked. I'm not about to crow though, who knows where this market goes from here.

From: "Ian Heskitt iheskitt@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: "yahoogroups" <tsp_strategy@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Tuesday, March 29, 2016 3:50:10 PM
Subject: [TSP_Strategy] Second thoughts

 

It's hard being on the sidelines right now. Any other thoughts from anyone right now? $DWCPF was 953 when we made the switch to F... About 4% ago


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Posted by: Scotty Cox <sjcx@cableone.net>
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Neither the TSP Strategy group, nor individual members, are licensed or authorized to provide investment advice. Any statements made herein merely reflect the personal opinions of the individual group member. Please make your own investment decisions based upon your personal circumstances.

.

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