Re: [EXTERNAL] Re: [TSPStrategy] S Fund graphs

I do not trade the TSP funds.

First, trading is a losers game from experience of myself and others over the decades.

you get whipsawed, buying high, selling low and such, I have and lost 99% one time

                                            this is _not_ advice

I'm posting the charts for informational purposes only

here is the S fund back to 2004. Something very weird happened in early 2020 that I find mildly alarming

to me the question is: when will the S fund revert back to the mean?

I have no idea personally, which is 1 reason I look at lots of stuff daily, (plus being retired)

On Friday, February 19, 2021, 03:58:14 PM EST, Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com> wrote:

So, sense it's hugging the top band does that mean it's going to continue going up? Or is it going to correct towards the 20 day moving average? I'm basically curious what does this chart tell us? If it hits the bottom band is a that a good entry point?  Thanks for the patience and the explanation. 

Carlos Miranda

Mirandarts@gmail.com

On Feb 19, 2021, at 2:21 PM, robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com> wrote:



The little chart is the last 8 weeks, 2 months of trading.

(there are obviously short weeks in there) but it gives a base line

20 days is about 1 month's worth of trading

the "jagged" blue line is the daily data. that bounces around so folks have "agreed" to use various moving averages to "smooth" out the data

those are the 2 "center lines, raw data and moving average

the bands that surround are 2 Standard Deviation bands that are based on 19-20 day averages

note the raw daily data like to stay near or "hug" either the upper or lower band

2 standard deviations is appx 66%

On Friday, February 19, 2021, 12:49:53 PM EST, Carlos Miranda <mirandarts@gmail.com> wrote:

Probably a stupid question but, can you break down in "I don't know charts" words? I have the feeling they mean that the S fund has gone way past where it should be but I'm not sure. If you would rather not do that,  then that's fine too.   I'll sit in the dark. 😂 thanks

Carlos Miranda

Mirandarts@gmail.com

On Feb 19, 2021, at 11:40 AM, Albiez, Jeannette. (ARC-JAC) via groups.io <jeannette.albiez=nasa.gov@groups.io> wrote:



Thanks for doing these.  I appreciate the insight.  I'd love to see the C and I fund too ;) (in case you've already done those)

 

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> On Behalf Of winfield100 via groups.io
Sent: Thursday, February 18, 2021 6:01 PM
To: tspstrategy@groups.io; TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: [EXTERNAL] Re: [TSPStrategy] S Fund graphs

 

last 13.5 months S fund

 

<image001.png>

 

Last 2 months (8 trading weeks)

(I graph this data daily, you can get it from TSP website

(go to TSP.gov. click fund performance, select share price history, it goes all the way back to June 2nd, 2003)

The 2Standard Deviation bands are based on 20 day moving average and can expand and contract. 

the raw price is the jagged line.

One thing folks who study this have noted is the raw price likes to "hug" either the top or bottom SD line, which seems to become a self fulfilling prophecy as others notice it also

Note from mid Feb 2020 when we had that "black swan" that recovered near mid-late march early April

The data points to me, are a distillation to a single number of the consensus of what a lot of people think, so take it with caution.

 

<image002.png>

tomorrow, friday, will be interesting