Re: [TSPStrategy] technical indicator

Interesting read

Jim Hattaway

On Jan 30, 2021, at 2:21 PM, winfield100 via groups.io <winfield100=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:



@Locutusoftexas 

I think a major black swan that is going on is a lot of "de-grossing" by hedge funds that are having to both cover shorts and de-leverage longs to raise equity to cover the shorts

GME caused a major problem, with shorts losing, more or less ~$17 Billion in 1 week

other hedge funds are hastily reducing leverage "de-grossing" because they don't want to go belly up like Melvin Capital may that needed a few billion infusion from 2 other short hedge funds.

they apparently were extremely leveraged and the 1,700+% rise in GME is very bad for shorts

There was a story in Washington Post about a 10 year old who's mom bought him 10 shares of GME for about $61, two years ago, that cashed out for almost $3,000 for his college fund

multiply by the 3-5 million of RobinHood folks and a massive wealth transfer is happening from wall street to main street

I'm not sure if this belongs here but things are the wildest I have seen in almost 40 years in the market

Maybe we can get Glass-Stegal (1930's) and Dodd-Frank (2008) back

On Saturday, January 30, 2021, 01:18:42 PM EST, Locutusoftexas <mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:

My technical indicator can be viewed as an oscillator. I use it two ways: (1) When it has risen "sufficiently," the market is in a secular uptrend and I give it two points in my version of the Zweig model. (2) If it reaches historical high levels, then I view that as a sell signal and similarly if it reaches historical low levels, then I view it as a buy signal.

Near the end of 2020, it reached the historical high levels that happen once in a blue moon (every few years or longer). So I transferred 100% from the C fund to the G fund. Then, as usual, rather than going down as it has every time in the last 30+years, stocks continued up slowly and my indicator just proceeded higher above already unprecendented levels that I saw only at the beginning of 2020 (of course). As usual the market of 2020 was a true black swan type outlier.

Nevertheless, I persevered. This week it turned downward, as did the market. Based on history, it has more to go on the downside. However, this market has been confounding, as least to me. So who knows? I am staying in G until my indicator bottoms out.

As usual, do not do what I am doing. Choose your poison.

Good luck,
Tex

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