I have been in stock markets since late 1970's. I have been stunned by "paralysis of analysis" ie, the signals say i should do something, but i'm not sure.
When i comes to TSP, i'm 100% in whatever i'm in, right now, 100% in S fund as we only get 2 trades/month with the G fund being a "time out" fund
I could lazy out and just use L2050, but the slopes are flattened.
I do intend to checkout the http://www.tspcalc.com/ and do some backtesting, but i know i and many other folks wait a day or 2 or even 3 "just to be sure", or even "drat, it's past 11am or 12noon and the trade won't go thru until tomorrow".
before i retired, i chatted with a guy whom is almost 100% G, due to fear or whatever, and showed him even just the L2050 or L2040 and how he could gain more in his final 8-10 years, but he's still fearful.
now that i and my wife are on fixed incomes, we have to be careful as the paychecks stopped very abruptly, but due to care and caution and frugal living we are more comfortable than many others
From: "poptopwater@yahoo.com [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Wednesday, October 25, 2017 1:27 PM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Where Are We?
Robert -
How exactly would you "miss the signals" and miss a trade deadline? That's not a simple question. If you actually looked at the tool, you would see that a user can see their moves for the entire next calendar year. That user would then be wise to setup a reminder to ensure they don't miss trade deadlines.
Second question, also not a simple question. Are you implying that if we all did the same thing we would actually sway the outcome of share price? Not gonna happen considering a huge chunk of feds never even make it out of the G fund.
As for performance, most strategies back test to outperform buy and hold 100% of the time while reducing exposure to around 60% time in stocks. No emotion, no chart reading, no second guessing, just seasonal averaging. Will it work out? who knows.
FWIW, I hopped on strategy 7980 which sits at 23.26% YTD as of today.
---In TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com, <winfield100@...> wrote :
simple questions
if you use tspcalc to trade,
how does it perform if you miss the signals by 1-3 days at either end of signal, since you only get 2 trades per month?
Since it would be using end of day pricing, or even tomorrows pricing, how soon do the gains get diluted out by more folks using the system.
12/30/2016 40.996
10/24/2017 47.7515
1/3/2017 41.2911
a simple buy and hold S fund from 1/3/2016 = 15.65% gain
a simple buy and hold S fund from 12/30/2016 = 16.48% gain
not that much less than 18% and zero work and zero worry about slippage from too early or too late trading
robert
From: "Philip Locklar philip.locklar@... [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
To: "TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Wednesday, October 25, 2017 10:06 AM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Where Are We?
Sent: Wednesday, October 25, 2017 10:06 AM
Subject: Re: [TSP_Strategy] Where Are We?
I believe TSPCALC.COM is a great tool. It appears to be an IFT simulator that will allow you to backtest to 2004 or any time frame between 2004 and now The developer mjedlin66 so far has a good track record using his strategy this year which I believe is strategy ID #24(he's currently at about 18% for this year to date).. The top strategy ID at the present is #16922 which averages about 38% per year. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results. You can develop your own seasonal strategy or use someone elses.
On Tuesday, October 24, 2017, 10:38:26 PM EDT, Dwight Waterman dwight.waterman@... [TSP_Strategy] <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
Does anyone in this group look at or follow http://www.tspcalc.com/
Not sure if want to take the chance, as I am happy with Sara's advice.
Any comments..??
On Sunday, October 22, 2017 9:40 AM, "sarah_oz@... [TSP_Strategy]" <TSP_Strategy@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
We should be about half way up in this bullish cycle.
Assuming that Nov and Dec remain seasonally bullish, we may begin looking at "fumes" in 2018.
At that point, we might look to the F or G funds for a short period of time, after which, the I fund appears to look increasingly attractive.
Remember that the I fund is most attractive when the USD is falling. It is not falling at the present time.
Assuming that Nov and Dec remain seasonally bullish, we may begin looking at "fumes" in 2018.
At that point, we might look to the F or G funds for a short period of time, after which, the I fund appears to look increasingly attractive.
Remember that the I fund is most attractive when the USD is falling. It is not falling at the present time.
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Posted by: robert winfield <winfield100@yahoo.com>
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