Re: [TSPStrategy] What would you do?

Hi Tex, 

Thank you very much for the warm reply

Just to address your questions.  I do NOT plan on relying on my TSP in retirement for income.  I retired from the reserves as a LtCol and plan to retire as federal employee GS14 in 3.5 years. I should be making six figures in retirement and I plan to pay off my mortgage in just over a year. 

It's just that I was within a few $100k short of being a TSP millionaire and my trajectory looked great until I made the move to G at the end of December along with the group.  Now I've watched the S Fund go higher and higher.  Each time I want to jump in, I worry that the next day is when the bottom will drop out from the market (Murphys Law). 

I know it's my decision but I just wanted to know what knowledgeable people are thinking about the direction of the market.  I'm disappointed that Sarah doesn't even step in to tell us what she's thinking.  I have taken note that Jerome Powell acknowledged some stocks are overpriced. 

I see that you're basically all G as well.  Tell me why you've stayed in the G.  Is it because of what you said,  that you expect a correction?  

KC

On Mon, Apr 12, 2021 at 1:31 PM, Locutusoftexas

<mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:

KC,

Normally I do not like to answer questions like this because I am not a financial advisor and what I say is meaningless without knowing your situation in detail. Therefore I do not and cannot accept responsibility for what someone might do with my opinion. I tend to be wordy, so I will try to keep this short:

 

(1) As to how much I know, I moved my TSP from 100% C to 100 % G in late December. I have left 10% on the table so far. So I am not all that great at predicting the future.

 

(2) My thinking is that the C Fund (S&P 500) is a much better index than I once thought. I am planning to use it for all of my future stock investments, including in my cash and IRA accounts.

 

(3) Will you need to spend some of your TSP money in retirement? If so, there are online calculators that will run various scenarios and take into account your withdrawal rate to estimate an optimal asset allocation, say stocks - bonds- cash (= G Fund) that you should maintain by monthly fund changes to ensure that you will not run out of money. Normally I have seen estimates around 3% or 4% for maximum annual withdrawal rates.

 

(4) If someone does NOT need to withdraw ANY money from the TSP in retirement and one is NOT investing for sport, then one could consider moving one's cash into stock funds (e.g., the C Fund) over the next few months and letting all of the money sit there forever. One could enjoy one's retirement (perhaps spending money on fun things like vacations) and work on one's will. Not a recommendation, just a possibility.

 

(4) Read the biweekly blog of the top economist/forecaster in US financial markets, Dr. Ed Yardeni at blog.yardeni.com  I just found his web site after following his interviews for the last 40 years and I am currently reading his book, Predicting the Markets. His web site is a gift to mortals like me.

 

(5) My Zweig supermodel is currently holding on at bullish, but my experience with the trend and monetary indicators indicates that the supermodel should turn neutral in the next few months.  Further I expect a correction. I think that Dr.Yardeni disagrees. You should trust yourself first, and after that, should you follow me or Dr. Yardeni? (Hint: not me and probably no one but yourself).

 

Hope that this helps and that all is well with you and your loved ones.

 

Tex

_._,_._,_

---

Groups.io Links:

You receive all messages sent to this group.

View/Reply Online (#2472) | Reply To Group | Reply To Sender | Mute This Topic | New Topic
Your Subscription | Contact Group Owner | Unsubscribe [prefander.leadersworkshop@blogger.com]

_._,_._,_