Re: [TSPStrategy] Retirement on TSP issue

Call dfas (defense finance) and have them update your military tsp.

On Apr 28, 2021, at 9:03 AM, Mike L <michael.lee003@gmail.com> wrote:



Have you tried to combine your uniformed services account into your civilian account? That could be a solution. Look up for tsp form TSP-65.

On Wed, Apr 28, 2021 at 8:48 PM DENNIS GRANT <dgrantrescue@gmail.com> wrote:

I am wondering if anyone else has had this issue and if you could please point me in the right direction to remedy it.
I retired on Feb 8. My mil TSP account still has me as uniformed services ( but my Civ account had me separated within a month)  and therefore all of the separated tabs are not open to me. I have called numerous offices only to be told they do not having anything to do with this issue. They give me another number to call where I get the same thing and pushed somewhere else. This is very disturbing since I can not do anything with my TSP funds until this is rectified. thanks in advance. 

Re: [TSPStrategy] Retirement on TSP issue

Have you tried to combine your uniformed services account into your civilian account? That could be a solution. Look up for tsp form TSP-65.

On Wed, Apr 28, 2021 at 8:48 PM DENNIS GRANT <dgrantrescue@gmail.com> wrote:

I am wondering if anyone else has had this issue and if you could please point me in the right direction to remedy it.
I retired on Feb 8. My mil TSP account still has me as uniformed services ( but my Civ account had me separated within a month)  and therefore all of the separated tabs are not open to me. I have called numerous offices only to be told they do not having anything to do with this issue. They give me another number to call where I get the same thing and pushed somewhere else. This is very disturbing since I can not do anything with my TSP funds until this is rectified. thanks in advance. 

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[TSPStrategy] Retirement on TSP issue

I am wondering if anyone else has had this issue and if you could please point me in the right direction to remedy it.
I retired on Feb 8. My mil TSP account still has me as uniformed services ( but my Civ account had me separated within a month)  and therefore all of the separated tabs are not open to me. I have called numerous offices only to be told they do not having anything to do with this issue. They give me another number to call where I get the same thing and pushed somewhere else. This is very disturbing since I can not do anything with my TSP funds until this is rectified. thanks in advance. 

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Re: [TSPStrategy] suggested light reading

Thank you for suggestion!

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[TSPStrategy] suggested light reading

Fellow board members, you might wish to take a look at Dr. Yardeni's latest blog entry of April 25, 2021. As usual, he works from data, the only facts that we have. His analysis is also characteristically even-handed.

I am reading his book, Predicting the Markets, which is a comprehensive financial and economic history and analysis of the US, concentrating on the period around 1960-2018, the year of publication. I recommend that every serious investor refer to this book often. He has some current studies of the more recent period in e-book format for around $2.00.

Good luck,
Tex

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

The S fund is mostly growth (Square, Uber, Zoom) vs C fund portfolio (JP Morgan, Berkshire, and big tech) of blend. Here's a snapshot of the portfolios by end of last year, likely about the same. Both managed by BlackRock.

On 4/20/21 at 12:53 PM, Ardon Kharpuri Mukhim via groups.io wrote:

From: "Ardon Kharpuri Mukhim via groups.io" <akharpuri=yahoo.com@groups.io>
Date: April 20, 2021
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io,
"Matthew Stromfeld" <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com>
Cc:
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Why is the S fund dropping more than C fund?

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 9:51 AM, Matthew Stromfeld

<Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks for the responses! Shout out to Curtis' input, big up my dude. 

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 9:31 AM Curtis Wall <curtisakatoyo@hotmail.com> wrote:

Says right on the website...

An interfund transfer requested before 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed that night.

After 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed the following day.

---

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of nelson p via groups.io <alaskennp=yahoo.com@groups.io>
Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 2021 9:18 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

 

Next day if before 12 eastern

On Apr 20, 2021, at 12:10, Bill Holzworth <holzworth.bill@gmail.com> wrote:



If you get it in before noon it will be for the next day. If you put change in after 12 noon it takes affect 2 days

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 12:08 PM Matthew Stromfeld <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

May I suggest graphing the last 200-250 trading days of the S fund

Then adding 12, 26, 50, 100 and 200 day exponential moving averages (which give more weight to latest data), 

Adding linear regression lines to the curves and just look at it.

What does it seem to tell you?

I'm still 100% S fund 

I personally think the several Trillions of dollars injected into the economy are helping a lot, but look at stuff every day

On Apr 20, 2021, at 12:08 PM, Matthew Stromfeld <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:



Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Agreed

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 11:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Plain my speaking, a dip.  All the moving averages that i have seen appear to show a mosy positive trend but if we get two or three days with losses like today's that may signify a dip and not a drop, I'll get back in.  Just my 2 cents.  

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 11:30 AM Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:

@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Why is the S fund dropping more than C fund?

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 9:51 AM, Matthew Stromfeld

<Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Thanks for the responses! Shout out to Curtis' input, big up my dude. 

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 9:31 AM Curtis Wall <curtisakatoyo@hotmail.com> wrote:

Says right on the website...

An interfund transfer requested before 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed that night.

After 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed the following day.

---

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of nelson p via groups.io <alaskennp=yahoo.com@groups.io>
Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 2021 9:18 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

 

Next day if before 12 eastern

On Apr 20, 2021, at 12:10, Bill Holzworth <holzworth.bill@gmail.com> wrote:



If you get it in before noon it will be for the next day. If you put change in after 12 noon it takes affect 2 days

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 12:08 PM Matthew Stromfeld <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Thanks for the responses! Shout out to Curtis' input, big up my dude. 

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 9:31 AM Curtis Wall <curtisakatoyo@hotmail.com> wrote:

Says right on the website...

An interfund transfer requested before 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed that night.

After 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed the following day.

---

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of nelson p via groups.io <alaskennp=yahoo.com@groups.io>
Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 2021 9:18 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

 

Next day if before 12 eastern

On Apr 20, 2021, at 12:10, Bill Holzworth <holzworth.bill@gmail.com> wrote:



If you get it in before noon it will be for the next day. If you put change in after 12 noon it takes affect 2 days

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 12:08 PM Matthew Stromfeld <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

_._,_._,_

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Says right on the website...

An interfund transfer requested before 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed that night.

After 12:00 noon, Eastern time, on a business day will generally be processed the following day.

---

From: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io> on behalf of nelson p via groups.io <alaskennp=yahoo.com@groups.io>
Sent: Tuesday, April 20, 2021 9:18 AM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io <TSPStrategy@groups.io>
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

 

Next day if before 12 eastern

On Apr 20, 2021, at 12:10, Bill Holzworth <holzworth.bill@gmail.com> wrote:



If you get it in before noon it will be for the next day. If you put change in after 12 noon it takes affect 2 days

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 12:08 PM Matthew Stromfeld <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Next day if before 12 eastern

On Apr 20, 2021, at 12:10, Bill Holzworth <holzworth.bill@gmail.com> wrote:



If you get it in before noon it will be for the next day. If you put change in after 12 noon it takes affect 2 days

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 12:08 PM Matthew Stromfeld <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

If you get it in before noon it will be for the next day. If you put change in after 12 noon it takes affect 2 days

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021, 12:08 PM Matthew Stromfeld <Matthew.Stromfeld@gmail.com> wrote:

Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

Remind me, does the change take affect the following day or does it take 2 days to process?

I'm thinking of putting 30% back into play, if it keeps dipping. Balance my odds a bit. 

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 8:41 AM Nelson Garcia via groups.io <it2garcia=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

_._,_._,_

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Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

May be this is the dip that we are waiting for. I'll wait till tomorrow. I don't want to move too early like the last time.

On Apr 20, 2021, at 8:31 AM, Mark Morrison <mark3m@swbell.net> wrote:



@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

@Ed, What conditions are you looking for to get back in?

Re: [TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

I am going to wait for the group.

Thanks!

On Tue, Apr 20, 2021 at 11:16 AM ed rosado <ed.rosado@gmail.com> wrote:

I saw that the markets are in the red today.  I for one can't wait to get back in.  Good luck to you all. 

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[TSPStrategy] Waiting to get back

I saw that the markets are in the red today.  I for one can't wait to get back in.  Good luck to you all. 

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Re: [TSPStrategy] What would you do?

Good for you and thank you for your service.

Answer: Yes. I have been to this rodeo before and I see no reason to dive back in at this point. Also, I am using the TSP to manage total portfolio risk for my family in case I kick the bucket.

Good luck and best wishes,
Tex

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Re: [TSPStrategy] What would you do?

Hi Tex, 

Thank you very much for the warm reply

Just to address your questions.  I do NOT plan on relying on my TSP in retirement for income.  I retired from the reserves as a LtCol and plan to retire as federal employee GS14 in 3.5 years. I should be making six figures in retirement and I plan to pay off my mortgage in just over a year. 

It's just that I was within a few $100k short of being a TSP millionaire and my trajectory looked great until I made the move to G at the end of December along with the group.  Now I've watched the S Fund go higher and higher.  Each time I want to jump in, I worry that the next day is when the bottom will drop out from the market (Murphys Law). 

I know it's my decision but I just wanted to know what knowledgeable people are thinking about the direction of the market.  I'm disappointed that Sarah doesn't even step in to tell us what she's thinking.  I have taken note that Jerome Powell acknowledged some stocks are overpriced. 

I see that you're basically all G as well.  Tell me why you've stayed in the G.  Is it because of what you said,  that you expect a correction?  

KC

On Mon, Apr 12, 2021 at 1:31 PM, Locutusoftexas

<mrweyl@hotmail.com> wrote:

KC,

Normally I do not like to answer questions like this because I am not a financial advisor and what I say is meaningless without knowing your situation in detail. Therefore I do not and cannot accept responsibility for what someone might do with my opinion. I tend to be wordy, so I will try to keep this short:

 

(1) As to how much I know, I moved my TSP from 100% C to 100 % G in late December. I have left 10% on the table so far. So I am not all that great at predicting the future.

 

(2) My thinking is that the C Fund (S&P 500) is a much better index than I once thought. I am planning to use it for all of my future stock investments, including in my cash and IRA accounts.

 

(3) Will you need to spend some of your TSP money in retirement? If so, there are online calculators that will run various scenarios and take into account your withdrawal rate to estimate an optimal asset allocation, say stocks - bonds- cash (= G Fund) that you should maintain by monthly fund changes to ensure that you will not run out of money. Normally I have seen estimates around 3% or 4% for maximum annual withdrawal rates.

 

(4) If someone does NOT need to withdraw ANY money from the TSP in retirement and one is NOT investing for sport, then one could consider moving one's cash into stock funds (e.g., the C Fund) over the next few months and letting all of the money sit there forever. One could enjoy one's retirement (perhaps spending money on fun things like vacations) and work on one's will. Not a recommendation, just a possibility.

 

(4) Read the biweekly blog of the top economist/forecaster in US financial markets, Dr. Ed Yardeni at blog.yardeni.com  I just found his web site after following his interviews for the last 40 years and I am currently reading his book, Predicting the Markets. His web site is a gift to mortals like me.

 

(5) My Zweig supermodel is currently holding on at bullish, but my experience with the trend and monetary indicators indicates that the supermodel should turn neutral in the next few months.  Further I expect a correction. I think that Dr.Yardeni disagrees. You should trust yourself first, and after that, should you follow me or Dr. Yardeni? (Hint: not me and probably no one but yourself).

 

Hope that this helps and that all is well with you and your loved ones.

 

Tex

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Re: [TSPStrategy] What would you do?

KC,
Normally I do not like to answer questions like this because I am not a financial advisor and what I say is meaningless without knowing your situation in detail. Therefore I do not and cannot accept responsibility for what someone might do with my opinion. I tend to be wordy, so I will try to keep this short:

(1) As to how much I know, I moved my TSP from 100% C to 100 % G in late December. I have left 10% on the table so far. So I am not all that great at predicting the future.

(2) My thinking is that the C Fund (S&P 500) is a much better index than I once thought. I am planning to use it for all of my future stock investments, including in my cash and IRA accounts.

(3) Will you need to spend some of your TSP money in retirement? If so, there are online calculators that will run various scenarios and take into account your withdrawal rate to estimate an optimal asset allocation, say stocks - bonds- cash (= G Fund) that you should maintain by monthly fund changes to ensure that you will not run out of money. Normally I have seen estimates around 3% or 4% for maximum annual withdrawal rates.

(4) If someone does NOT need to withdraw ANY money from the TSP in retirement and one is NOT investing for sport, then one could consider moving one's cash into stock funds (e.g., the C Fund) over the next few months and letting all of the money sit there forever. One could enjoy one's retirement (perhaps spending money on fun things like vacations) and work on one's will. Not a recommendation, just a possibility.

(5) Read the biweekly blog of the top economist/forecaster in US financial markets, Dr. Ed Yardeni at blog.yardeni.com  I just found his web site after following his interviews for the last 40 years and I am currently reading his book, Predicting the Markets. His web site is a gift to mortals like me.

(6) My Zweig supermodel is currently holding on at bullish, but my experience with the trend and monetary indicators indicates that the supermodel should turn neutral in the next few months.  Further I expect a correction. I think that Dr.Yardeni disagrees. You should trust yourself first, and after that, should you follow me or Dr. Yardeni? (Hint: not me and probably no one but yourself).

Hope that this helps and that all is well with you and your loved ones.

 Tex

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Re: [TSPStrategy] What would you do?

KC,

Normally I do not like to answer questions like this because I am not a financial advisor and what I say is meaningless without knowing your situation in detail. Therefore I do not and cannot accept responsibility for what someone might do with my opinion. I tend to be wordy, so I will try to keep this short:

 

(1) As to how much I know, I moved my TSP from 100% C to 100 % G in late December. I have left 10% on the table so far. So I am not all that great at predicting the future.

 

(2) My thinking is that the C Fund (S&P 500) is a much better index than I once thought. I am planning to use it for all of my future stock investments, including in my cash and IRA accounts.

 

(3) Will you need to spend some of your TSP money in retirement? If so, there are online calculators that will run various scenarios and take into account your withdrawal rate to estimate an optimal asset allocation, say stocks - bonds- cash (= G Fund) that you should maintain by monthly fund changes to ensure that you will not run out of money. Normally I have seen estimates around 3% or 4% for maximum annual withdrawal rates.

 

(4) If someone does NOT need to withdraw ANY money from the TSP in retirement and one is NOT investing for sport, then one could consider moving one's cash into stock funds (e.g., the C Fund) over the next few months and letting all of the money sit there forever. One could enjoy one's retirement (perhaps spending money on fun things like vacations) and work on one's will. Not a recommendation, just a possibility.

 

(4) Read the biweekly blog of the top economist/forecaster in US financial markets, Dr. Ed Yardeni at blog.yardeni.com  I just found his web site after following his interviews for the last 40 years and I am currently reading his book, Predicting the Markets. His web site is a gift to mortals like me.

 

(5) My Zweig supermodel is currently holding on at bullish, but my experience with the trend and monetary indicators indicates that the supermodel should turn neutral in the next few months.  Further I expect a correction. I think that Dr.Yardeni disagrees. You should trust yourself first, and after that, should you follow me or Dr. Yardeni? (Hint: not me and probably no one but yourself).

 

Hope that this helps and that all is well with you and your loved ones.

 

Tex

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[TSPStrategy] FedSmith Survey - Federal Employees Respond: Stay Away from My TSP

https://www.fedsmith.com/2021/04/11/federal-employees-respond-stay-away-from-my-tsp/

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Re: [TSPStrategy] 60 Minutes Episode

You ask, "what do others think"   here is what I think and reasons why, first the reasons

A study of the price movements of the 5 funds, initially, ending with a study of the C & S funds (S&P 500 and Dow Jones Completion Index, symbol DWCPF)

To me, these graphs are a _snapshot_ of what the "market" (everybody) is "thinking"

this is the entire data set then, smaller snapshots

to me, overall, it looks a bit flatter, not going up as much, but going up

On Sunday, April 11, 2021, 08:10:15 PM EDT, Valerie Frazier <valerie.frazier@att.net> wrote:

I just watched the 60 Minutes interview and 

I have same question as KC.  Curious as to what group thinks about a pull back.  I'm wondering If this a good time to maybe put some money back in S if I moved everything?  Would love to hear your thoughts.

Valerie 

On Apr 11, 2021, at 6:50 PM, KC Will via groups.io <kcwill64114=yahoo.com@groups.io> wrote:

Did you catch the 60 Minutes interview of Jerome Powell? He says the economy is looking to make a dramatic comeback in the 2nd half of the year.  No intention of interest rate increases. 

How does this affect the market?   Do folks really think there's going to be a pull back still? 

KC