Re: [TSPStrategy] Still in G?

I like to use technical indicators to give me some confidence in what the markets are doing.

To me, they give a snapshot of what most everyone is thinking

To me, a picture is worth a 1,000 words and at a glance give me an idea of what most everyone is thinking and doing

(I don't trade either. it is a way to lose everything)

(my greatest regrets are trading and taking miniscule profits and losing 99x gains)

look at the graph from around June, 2012 about 9 years ago

S & C have been on a run, I fund got tired around late 2015, as did to a lesser amount S & C funds

The V shaped recovery from the COVID19 "Black swan" a year ago.

Money seems to me to be "awash" in the economy and $1.9 trillion just got added

I monitor stuff every day to keep an eye on things. 

(I personally don't think the upwards movement steepness of S is sustainable, but realize I can switch out in 1 day if needed)

Last 18 years of S, C, I, F and G funds

So a closer look (F & G funds flat)

S about 35 to low 80's

C about 25 to around 60

I  about 25 to around 35 (not as good as S (DWCPF) or C (S&P 500)

Last 7 years with Linear regression lines of S, C, I funds

Last 2 years with Linear regression lines of S, C and I funds

S fund ~50 to 80

C fund ~40 to ~58

If you were lucky and IF you could see the future and IF you sold at the right time and IF you bought back at the right time and IF you had insider information and IF IF,  

you could have "Bought the notch" but IF you held...............

(the C fund is presently below the linear regression line for the last 2 years and the S fund is way above it, BUT $1.9 Trillion is getting injected into the US economy

(Note: F and G and I funds are essentially flat)

below is a web site that monitors technical analysis of the S Fund DWCPF (The C Fund is essentially the S&P 500)

It measures moving averages and price oscillators and gives a recomendation

 Technical Analysis of Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market (DJ:DWCPF) — TradingView

Technical Analysis of Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market (DJ:DWC... Which technical analysis tools can be used to analyze Dow Jones US Completion Total Stock Market? Check out vari...

Once these things are set up, it takes just a few moments to glance at them and either have confidence or take a closer look if something looks amiss

This is _only_ a commentary on how I do things. 

If I knew then what I know now, 40 years later, I would have accumulated equities and not traded equities

On Monday, March 15, 2021, 12:24:53 AM EDT, Abe Awwad <abeawwad@hotmail.com> wrote:

Timing the market is difficult…I prefer allocation by years until retirement:

 

1-5 years until retirement: 60% G, 20% C, 20% S

 

5-10 years until retirement: 50% G, 25%C, 25%S

 

10-15 years until retirement: 30% G, 35%C, 35%S

 

15+ years until retirement: 20% G, 40%C, 40%S

 

I recommend you always have at least 20% in G to cost average into C and S in case of a major market correction.

 

These are extraordinary times so be cautious about going all in on any one fund, things have a way of reverting back to the mean eventually.

 

Hope that helps and good luck.

 

 

Sent from Mail for Windows 10

 

From: Valerie Frazier
Sent: Sunday, March 14, 2021 6:40 PM
To: TSPStrategy@groups.io
Subject: Re: [TSPStrategy] Still in G?

 

I'm 3 years out from retirement.  When we went to G, I moved my balance to G but still put new allocations each pay period in S fund.  When the notice comes to get back in S, I'm struggling with how much I should move from G to S to try to capitalize on good returns before I retire.  I'm always reading different opinions from those in the group ans would love to hear some advice on the best way to go being this close to retirement.

 

Thank you.

On Mar 11, 2021, at 1:56 PM, ed rosado <ed.rosado@gmail.com> wrote:



I'm not one to cry over a missed opportunity but the markets seem to be doing really well recently.  I moved to G around election time to avoid what I saw as uncertainty in the future.  We definitely saw some events that could have shaken the markets since then.  Looking forward, does anyone have a definite plan and milestones to return to C or S funds?